000 
FXUS65 KVEF 051140
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
440 AM PDT FRI OCT 5 2007

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE 
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD 
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND DECREASE AS IT MAKES ITS WAY 
OVER THE AREA. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE INCOMING COLD UPPER LOW IS ON TRACK AND THE LATEST 
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF 
THE SYSTEM AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN 
REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN LINE WITH 
PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAS NOT REQUIRED SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE 
GENERAL INHERITED FORECAST TRENDS ALTHOUGH DETAILS WERE FINE TUNED. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN 
CALIFORNIA AND OREGON AND A 110-120 KNOT SOUTHWEST JET OVER THE 
SOUTHERN SIERRA AT 11Z. WIND SHOULD DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS 
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES AS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM 
SLIDES SOUTH AND THE JET MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. SURFACE WINDS 
SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AT BISHOP BETWEEN 08 AND 10Z AND THE COLD FRONT 
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE DOWN THROUGH INYO COUNTY THIS MORNING. AREAS AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT WILL BE SUBJECTED TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 
OF 50-60 MPH AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE AREA. WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN 
NEVADA MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND HIGH WIND 
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE FAVORED AREAS. THE 06Z NAM 
INDICATES THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA 
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN PUSH SOUTH AFTER 03Z FOLLOWED BY 
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 15-30 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. 
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE BRISK WINDS AND THE LOW END OF 
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WHICH PROBABLY IS BEST WITH THIS ANOMALOUSLY 
COLD SYSTEM...SUPPORT SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EVER FOR 
SOUTHERN NEVADA OCTOBER 6. WINDS DECREASE SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES 
TRY TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE OVER 
THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS.  THE 
NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. 
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE ENERGY FROM 
THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE MID LEVEL WINDS 
REALLY REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST 
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.  THERE SHOULD ONLY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 
CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER SIERRA 
MOUNTAIN AREAS.  ANY MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  HAVE OPTED 
TO USE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MIXED WITH COOPMOS.

&&

.AVIATION...COMING SOON.


&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ018-019.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING 
     FOR NVZ015-016-020>022.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ017.
AZ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MST THIS EVENING 
     FOR AZZ001>003-036.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ519-521.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING 
     FOR CAZ524>527.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR CAZ523.
&&

$$

ADAIR/BORDEN

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS