000 FXUS64 KFWD 300754 CCA AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 250 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2007 .DISCUSSION... VERY RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER N TX PER GOES SOUNDER AND GPS-MET DATA...WITH VALUES GENERALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES EXPECTED. UPPER LOW CONTS RETROGRADING NOW WEST OF EL PASO AND ACROSS NRN MEXICO/SRN AZ/NM AS EXPECTED. THIS IS ALLOWING A CONTINUED...DEEP S/SWLY FETCH IN MID LVLS FROM ERN PACIFIC...WHILE ELY FLOW IN LOWEST 10 KFT KEEPS MOISTURE RICH DEW PTS FROM LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO OUR AREA. SEVERAL OUTFLOWS LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE WILL ACT AS A BETTER FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH THE NEXT 48 HRS. ANOTHER ADDED LIFTING FEATURE WILL BE THE WEAK MID LVL S/X OVER THE MS VALLEY/OZARKS SINKING SWWD TOWARD N TX THROUGH MID WEEK. THUS...JUST WHEN IT SEEMED N TX WAS DRYING OUT FROM NEAR RECORD RAINS FROM LATE MAY THROUGH EARLY JULY...HERE COMES THE RAIN AGAIN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO BETTER FOCUSING MECHANISMS IN THE NORTH AND WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. LITTLE MORE WIDELY SCT IN THE S/SW COUNTIES...THOUGH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY HASNT BEEN WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY FFA (FLASH FLOOD WATCH) ISSUANCE THIS MORNING...THOUGH AFTER TODAY...THIS MAY NEED TO BE RE-ASSESSED FOR TUES INTO WED. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON AXIS OF BEST QPF AND POPS...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...LESS SO IN THE SOUTH. WEAK S/W AND LIFT LOOKS TO SLIP OFF TO THE S/SW OF AREA BY THURS INTO THE WEEKEND...THUS WILL TAPER RAIN CHANCES OFF FROM NE TO SW LATE WEEK...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT ROGUE...ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTN/EVE. TEMPS WERE TRICKY AS WELL...AS EVIDENCED BY OUR 96 DEGREE HIGH ON SUN. I TOOK A COMPROMISE OF MOS HIGHS WITH CONFIDENCE MARGINAL. THOUGH A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARD WARMER ENSEMBLE GFS MOS WAS WAY TO GO MOSTLY WITH IT BEING LATE JULY. AGAIN...TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A BIG PLAYER ON HIGH TEMPS EACH DAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 95 78 94 76 94 / 40 30 40 40 40 WACO, TX 92 75 93 76 93 / 30 20 30 30 30 PARIS, TX 92 74 91 73 92 / 50 30 40 40 50 DENTON, TX 94 74 93 74 93 / 40 30 40 40 40 MCKINNEY, TX 94 73 92 72 93 / 40 30 40 40 40 DALLAS, TX 92 77 93 76 93 / 40 30 40 40 40 TERRELL, TX 92 75 92 74 91 / 40 30 40 30 40 CORSICANA, TX 92 74 93 75 92 / 40 20 30 30 40 TEMPLE, TX 91 74 93 74 94 / 30 20 20 30 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 99/05