000 FXUS65 KTFX 281509 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 910 AM MDT SAT JUL 28 2007 NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME .UPDATE... CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER HOT DAY OVER THE REGION. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CUT BANK AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE. BRUSDA && .AVIATION... UPDATED 1130Z. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM OVER AND MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE. EXPECT VFR TO CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. && .FIRE WEATHER... UPDATED 910 AM. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER ZONE 112...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE LOWER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON...CONSIDERING THIS AND THE WINDS...RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE CUT BANK AREA UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW OVER THE OTHER ZONES AS WELL...BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. THOMSON/BRUSDA && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SAT JUL 28 2007) TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SUNDAY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND OUT OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE DISTURBANCE. UNDER THE RIDGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MANY LOCATIONS AROUND 100 DEGREES BY SUNDAY. THOSE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY EVEN AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THOMSON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING TOWARDS MONTANA. SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH CWA MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE RIDGE IS OVER US ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION. CAMP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING IN A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FRIDAY A PERSISTENT RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ALLOWING A DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERMINGLE WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE REGION. A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG THE DIVIDE AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. SAUCIER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 97 63 98 64 / 10 20 10 10 CTB 97 60 96 61 / 10 10 10 10 HLN 97 63 98 63 / 20 20 10 10 BZN 98 59 101 60 / 20 20 10 10 WEY 85 47 88 48 / 20 20 20 10 DLN 92 59 94 60 / 20 20 10 10 HVR 100 63 100 63 / 10 10 10 10 LWT 93 58 95 61 / 20 20 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE CUT BANK AREA... && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS