000 
FXUS65 KMSO 280836
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
236 AM MDT SAT JUL 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AND WYOMING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS
A RESULT...THE HOT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WITH THE RESULTING
DECREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE...HAVE FURTHER CUT BACK ON POPS AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO LIMIT THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO
SW MONTANA AND TO LEMHI COUNTY.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS IN
AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN IDAHO NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN MONTANA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTH- CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA STRENGTHENS. A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT MOVES OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA ON TUESDAY
WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING BEHIND A VERY WEAK COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST
MONTANA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
...HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A POTENT SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH UP FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TAP DEEP
MONSOON MOISTURE AND WITH PLENTY OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY
ACCOMPANYING IT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY
STRONG...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AREAWIDE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW MONTANA AND LEMHI COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACT TO AVIATION EXPECTED.
PLEASE SEE APPROPRIATE TAFS AND TWEBS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH READINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
NEAR RECORD HEAT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RHS...BREEZY WINDS...AND HIGH HAINES INDEX
VALUES MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS WELL.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...HENRY 
LONG TERM....CHURCH 
AVIATION...HENRY