000 FXUS63 KGID 280003 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 703 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2007 .AVIATION...00Z TAF. TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WITH VARIOUS CONCERNS INCLUDING POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS REDEVELOPING IN THE MORNING AND DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO GROUP FOR CEILINGS AROUND 900 FT STARTING AT 10Z AND BELIEVE THIS SHOULD LIFT BACK INTO MVFR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. CAVEAT IS POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CEILINGS STICKING AROUND LONGER INTO THE DAY AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED ON LATER FORECASTS. AS FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 FOR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY TAKE PLACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER DURING THE LATE MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KT ON SATURDAY FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2007/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FOCUS IS ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD MOVED SOUTH OF CWA BY 18Z...WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH. UPLSOPE FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS GENERATED SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA INTO THE NIGHT WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AIDED BY UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...AND OUR SOUTHERN ZONES IN PROXIMITY TO THE NEARLY STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE. STRATUS LOOKS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AIDED BY THE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND POOLING OF MOISTURE. SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN ON THE CLOUDY SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THE DAY WILL BE A RAIN OUT WHILE OTHERS DO NOT...WITH SOME FLIP FLOPPING ALSO EXISTING FROM RUN TO RUN. ATTM...BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN MORE OF A SCATTERED NATURE INITIALLY...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY INTIATING TO THE WEST IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW WITH LIFT ALSO ENHANCED BY THE PROGRESSION OF A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TSTMS TO THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WHERE INITIATION ULTIMATELY OCCURS IS STILL A CONCERN AS THE NAM SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS THEREBY GIVING OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES BETTER CHCS FOR PCPN THAN WHAT THE GFS SUGGESTS. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST OUR CWA WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK...ALSO LENDING CREDENCE FOR INCREASING POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. OVERALL STORM MOTION IS RATHER SLOW...GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS...AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING 2 TO 2.25 INCHES HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A REMNANT MCS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORT WAVE WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. SHORT WAVE SHOULD WEAKEN SOME WITH TIME BUT THE GFS BASICALLY CUTS THE WAVE OFF AND LEAVES IT SITTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR CWA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. BELIEVE THAT THIS CUT OFF LOW FEATURE IS A LITTLE OVER DONE AND WILL FOCUS MORE ON THE OVERALL PICTURE WHICH IS A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR DRY WEATHER OVER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS UPPER LOW EARLY IN THE WEEK JUST IN CASE IT DOES TRY TO KICK SOMETHING OFF. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND. HOWEVER...THE BUILDING RIDGE NEXT WEEK WILL HELP TO BUMP HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...PFANNKUCH