000 FXUS65 KABQ 260255 AAA AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 855 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2007 .UPDATE... DECREASED THE COVERAGE AREA OF SCATTERED POPS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. 44 && .PREV DISCUSSION... 303 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2007...MUCH LESS ACTIVITY ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE RELATIVELY DOWN DAY THURSDAY BEFORE BIG CHANGES TAKE PLACE FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS MOISTURE PLUME STRETCHING FROM WY SSW ACROSS W CO INTO W NM/AZ AND DOWN THROUGH THE BAJA. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES BENEATH THIS MOISTURE PLUME. CURRENT ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY WEST. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE ADVERTISING A COMPLICATED SCENARIO SETTING UP BEGINNING FRIDAY ACROSS THE LAND OF ECHANTMENT. A TROUGH AXIS ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL ALLOW HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURS...SHIFTING THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRES CENTER CURRENTLY OVER E CO SLOWLY SW TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A SHORTWAVE MOVING S OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL FORCE A SFC COLD FRONT DOWN THE E PLAINS LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER S TX WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS INDICATE THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT THE MID/UPPER MOISTURE PLUME TO A MORE NE- SW AXIS ACROSS THE STATE WITH ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z GFS/NAM SHOW SEVERAL IMPULSES OF MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND WESTERN MTNS WE MAY SEE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD RAINS OF THE SUMMER THUNDERSTORM SEASON. RAISED POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON BEGINNING FRIDAY AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS IN THE NE PLAINS FOR FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR THE E AND SE PLAINS WILL BE HOW MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM W TX...WHICH WILL LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES POSTED FOR THIS WEEKEND SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CWFA BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL SET UP. LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE MID LEVEL HIGH ROTATES EAST TOWARD E CO. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 44