000 FXUS65 KBYZ 260234 AFDBYZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 834 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2007 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI... UPDATE FOR FORECAST AND AFP TONIGHT. MODELS NOT HANDLING CURRENT TREND VERY WELL AND APPEAR TO BE OVER DOING QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. RADAR HAS SHOWN CONVECTION CONFINED TO CENTRAL WYOMING THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT NORTHWARD. ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS ON GOING THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND WEAK AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DID SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES WHICH NONE OF THE MODELS WERE PICKING UP ON. THIS WAVE WAS BRINGING ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM BOZEMAN NORTHEAST TO JUDITH GAP AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS BETTER ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THESE AREAS AND WILL LEAVE LIKELY POPS GOING IN THESE AREAS. DID REDUCE POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BUT KEPT THEM ISOLATED AS AMPLE MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. RADAR WAS SHOWING NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER SC/SE MT THIS EVENING. BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH WEAK ENERGY ALOFT COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED STORMS. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS LOOK ON TRACK AND DID NOT CHANGE. RICHMOND .LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED... NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS HANGING ON TO THE THOUGHT OF THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK AND HOLDING ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN THE PICTURE AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE. TRAJECTORY TAKES THE MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA SO WILL NOT GO THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS. RIDGE FLATTENS SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE SPEED ON THE TROUGH...BUT BOTH MODELS TAKE IT PRETTY FAR TO THE NORTH...SO WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A COOL DOWN. WEAK WAVES WITH AFOREMENTIONED MONSOON MOISTURE KEEPS THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST. HUMPHREY && .AVIATION... VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT LOCAL MVFR IS A GOOD BET IN THE STRONGER STORMS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIGS/VIS IN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHEAST PARTS...INCLUDING SHERIDAN BUT PROBABLY SOUTH OF MILES CITY. THE BEARTOOTH AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 064/086 063/092 064/096 068/100 069/099 069/096 065/092 22/T 00/B 02/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T LVM 056/082 051/092 057/095 057/098 056/096 055/095 054/090 32/T 22/T 23/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T HDN 065/088 062/095 064/099 065/103 066/102 068/100 064/097 22/T 00/B 02/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T MLS 066/089 062/094 064/097 069/101 070/101 071/098 065/095 30/B 00/B 02/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 4BQ 066/087 062/092 065/096 065/100 067/101 069/099 066/099 42/T 00/B 02/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T BHK 064/085 056/090 059/091 065/096 067/097 066/098 063/095 22/T 00/B 02/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T SHR 062/082 058/091 059/095 062/098 062/099 062/095 063/095 63/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS