000 FXUS61 KCLE 151843 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 243 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST OHIO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. $$ .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HI PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS INDICATE SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW LATE MONDAY. H8 LOW AS WELL AS SURFACE LOW FORM AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AS WITH ALL SYSTEMS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS MOISTURE IS A CONCERN. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION WILL MAKE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED PCPN AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. INSTABILITY GENERATED BY THE MODELS IS MODERATE...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHWEST OHIO. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK CURRENTLY HAS SLGT OVER NORTHWEST PART OF WARNING AREA. GUIDANCE POPS RANGE FROM THE LOW CHC TO LIKELY. I WILL ERROR ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE BASED ON PAST TRENDS AND KEEP CHC POPS ALL LOCATIONS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE SOLUTION ON TUESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MOVING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF AGREES MORE WITH BOTH THE 00Z AND 12Z GFS SO I AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. THIS MEANS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MOST DAYS OF THE WEEK FOR THIS WEEK. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT AND THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH...THEN DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HPC GUIDANCE HAS VERY HIGH POPS FOR MID WEEK. I WILL LOWER THESE VALUES TO LOW TO MID CHANCE UNTIL THE PICTURE BECOMES MORE CLEAR. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO MAJOR SHIFT WITH THE EXTENDED PATTERN. MODELS STILL INDICATE NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && ..AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO...BUT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM CLE-ERI. WESTERN LOCATIONS HAVE SINCE CLEARED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY...OR BECOME NORTHERLY AT CAK OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HI SCT CLDS WITH LGT AND VAR FLOW. GUIDANCE INDICATING A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SRN MI AND OVER THE NRN HALF OF LAKE ERIE LATER OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING THIS TO BRING LITTLE OTHER THAN SOME CONTINUED HIGH CLDS...BUT DID MENTION A BKN MID DECK AT ERI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO NY STATE. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN SE AND S TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE MOVING SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS THIS LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY...BUT KEPT THINGS DRY AT ALL SITES THROUGH 18Z THINKING THAT SOME ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP AT WESTERN SITES TOWARDS EVENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MIDWEEK. IF FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO THEN CONDITIONS COULD RANGE FROM VFR-MVFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS. && .MARINE... WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND WILL HELP TO KEEP A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT. WAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO COME DOWN TO 2 FEET OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME EXPECTED FLOW TO BE LIGHT OVER THE LAKE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. WITH THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NORTH AND NORTHEAST INITIALLY. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT LOCATION OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY MIDWEEK AND SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...CAN SEE VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THESE DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND THEN PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE LAKE. GIVEN THE OVERALL LIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECTED WAVES TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 3 FEET OR LESS RANGE. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GARNET NEAR TERM...GARNET SHORT TERM...GARNET LONG TERM...GARNET AVIATION...ABE MARINE...ABE