000 FXUS63 KICT 142013 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ON SUNDAY. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER. TONIGHT: LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A CLUSTER OF TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPING BETWEEN HILL CITY AND RUSSELL ALONG A PSEUDO DRY LINE. IN ADDITION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH CONCORDIA. LAPS DATA IS SHOWING THE CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF 1500-2000J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILE FROM HILLSBORO IS AROUND 20KTS SO THERE COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A STORM FOR A LITTLE WHILE BEFORE IT COLLAPSES. AS A RESULT...WE COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS POP UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS DUE TO GOOD DEWPOINT SPREADS. THE STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH AROUND 20KTS AND MAY AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 9 PM. THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE EVENING WEARS ON SINCE THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CAPE TO WORK WITH. OVERNIGHT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TWO...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WASHING IT OUT BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS MECHANISM FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS..BUT THOSE STORMS SHOULD FIZZLE OUT BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY WAVE MOVING DOWN FROM NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING THIS...BUT I WOULD LIKE TOO SEE MORE EVIDENCE ON SATELLITE BEFORE MENTIONING POPS DURING THE EVENING. MONDAY-SATURDAY: THE MODELS START BUILDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE AMOUNT OF AMPLIFICATION. THE GFS SHOWS THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF RIDGING. WE ARE FAVORING MORE OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLES/ECMWF/UKMET FOR NOW...SINCE THERE IS QUITE OF ENERGY PLOWING INTO THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS ENERGY ACTUALLY COULD HELP ENHANCE THE RIDGING WHICH WOULD TEND TO STRENGTHEN THE TROF IN THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF CAP IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD TEND TO SQUASH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE YANKED OUT POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SENSIBLE HEAT FLUX WILL ALSO TEND TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. COX && FOR 18Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN THIS SET OF TAFS WAS CONVECTION FOR CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG IT. STORMS SHOULD FIRST FIRE OVER NE KS AND WORK THEIR WAY BACK WEST. AT THIS TIME ONLY PUT VCTS IN AT SLN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR WEST STORMS WILL BUILD. FEW-SCT CU HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT FOR SE AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THESE LOCATIONS IS UNSTABLE...BUT WITH LACK OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER OR STORM COVERAGE. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WITH FOG POTENTIAL. LAST NIGHT CNU AND HUT HAD SOME FOG AND WITH ATMOSPHERE CHANGING LITTLE...PUT SOME 2SM IN FOR HUT...CNU AND SLN AFTER 09Z. LAWSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 69 93 69 93 / 30 20 10 10 HUTCHINSON 67 93 69 94 / 30 10 10 10 NEWTON 68 93 69 93 / 30 10 10 10 ELDORADO 69 92 69 92 / 30 20 10 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 69 93 70 93 / 20 20 10 10 RUSSELL 64 94 67 97 / 20 10 10 10 GREAT BEND 65 94 67 97 / 30 10 10 10 SALINA 65 94 69 96 / 20 10 10 10 MCPHERSON 66 93 69 94 / 30 10 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 68 90 67 92 / 20 20 10 10 CHANUTE 68 90 67 92 / 20 20 10 10 IOLA 68 90 67 92 / 20 20 10 10 PARSONS-KPPF 67 90 67 92 / 20 20 10 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$