000 FXUS64 KLZK 140827 AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 325 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007 .SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NOT A LOT OF APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE FORECAST. MCS CAME THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE AND BROUGHT ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME AND ALL SIGNS POINT TO THE GENERAL PATTERN QUIETING DOWN...SOMEWHAT. OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BE NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD AS PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. SHORT TERM MODELS CONSISTENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE OVERALL PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. WITH NO GLARING DIFFERENCES OF NOTE...WILL SIMPLY GO WITH A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS. MOISTURE CHANNEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AT THIS TIME. THE PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED BY DEEP TROFFING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THEN FROM HUDSON BAY ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. IN BETWEEN THE TWO LONG WAVE TROFS IS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...LOCATED FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA BORDER TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR HAS RETURNED TO MOST OF THE STATE THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF FOG SHOWING UP ON 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WILL NEED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA WITH ANOTHER MCS PULLING ITSELF TOGETHER NORTHEAST TEXAS. MODELS ALL CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE FEATURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BE ON ITS HEELS AND INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHANCE POPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS FEATURE OVER THE SOUTH WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES POPS ELSEWHERE FOR ANY DIURNAL TYPE STUFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WERE SHOWING A SURFACE BOUNDARY COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND BUT BACKING OFF AT THIS TIME. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT HOWEVER IN DAMPENING OUT THE EASTERN CONUS TROF JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW A WEAK NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTATED SHEAR AXIS TO DEVELOP FROM THE PINEY WOODS OF TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. FEATURE REMAINS IN TACT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH AIR MASS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF IT REMAINING VERY JUICY WITH PWATS HOVERING NEAR TWO INCHES WITH PRONOUNCED GULF CONNECTION. MODELS DO KEEP THE JUICIEST OF THE AIR TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GETTING INTO THE HIGHEST MOISTURE. ANY EXCESSIVE RAINS WOULD LIKELY BE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION FOR DAYS THREE AND FOUR WILL HAVE A VERY HIGH DIURNAL COMPONENT WITH BEST CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE SHEAR AXIS AND DEEPER MOISTURE. POPS WILL RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH TO SCATTERED OVER THE SOUTH. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION OF LATE HAVE KEPT THE MERCURY BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND CLOSE TO NORMAL AT NIGHT. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN PLACE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST... DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS PERIOD. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOKS REASONABLE AND A RE GENERALLY ACCEPTED ALTHOUGH WILL GO JUST A TAD COOLER TODAY WITH AMOUNT OF WET SOIL RESULTING FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS. && .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INDICATIONS ARE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF WILL BE STATIONED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME WHEN HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY. BASICALLY WENT WITH 20 POPS DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS AND 30 POPS FOR THE DAYTIME PERIODS. HAD TO BACK OFF ON MAXES A LITTLE DUE TO THIS PATTERN BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE MOST PART. MINS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MOST OF THE PAST MONTH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 89 68 90 68 / 20 20 30 20 CAMDEN AR 87 68 88 70 / 50 50 50 30 HARRISON AR 88 65 89 67 / 20 20 20 20 HOT SPRINGS AR 89 68 90 69 / 40 40 40 30 LITTLE ROCK AR 89 68 90 69 / 30 40 40 30 MONTICELLO AR 87 69 88 70 / 50 50 50 40 MOUNT IDA AR 89 67 90 68 / 40 40 40 30 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 65 89 67 / 20 20 20 20 NEWPORT AR 89 69 90 69 / 30 30 30 20 PINE BLUFF AR 88 69 89 70 / 40 50 40 30 RUSSELLVILLE AR 89 67 90 68 / 30 30 30 20 SEARCY AR 89 69 90 69 / 30 30 30 30 STUTTGART AR 89 69 90 70 / 40 40 40 30 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...29