000 FXUS64 KFWD 251136 AAB AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 636 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2007 .AVIATION... /12Z TAF PERIOD/ MVFR CIGS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. EXPECT BKN CIGS AROUND 1500FT. AN AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY BETWEEN WACO AND WAXAHACHIE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND MAY AFFECT DAL AFTER 13Z. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY -RA AT DAL AND VCSH AT ALL OTHER METROPLEX SITES. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS ALSO BEGINNING TO SHOW CG LIGHTNING...AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE AWW. SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE ACT TERMINAL...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AFTER 15Z BEFORE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS REDEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...BEST TIMING PLACES T-STORMS NEAR AND/OR OVER THE AIRPORTS AFTER 20Z. CURRENT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE AFTERNOON PRECIP WILL WANE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET BEFORE SHOWERS AND STRATUS DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GO WITH RAIN AND MVFR CIGS AFTER 09Z. SCHULTZ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2007/ UPDATE... NEW FFA (FLASH FLOOD WATCH) ISSUED FOR THE WRN 1/2 OF N TX. PLEASE REFER TO ADVISORY LINE AT THE END OF THIS PRODUCT AND FTWFFAFWD FOR DETAILS OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2007/ DISCUSSION... VERY DIFFICULT FCST INDEED THIS MORNING...AS YET MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS /STORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK OR THURSDAY MORNING. CUT-OFF...NEAR WARM-CORE MID LVL LOW IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ABILENE AND MINERAL WELLS RIGHT NOW...TRAPPED UNDER REX-BLOCK RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OVER THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS INDICATIVE OF SEVERAL SYSTEMS N TX HAS SEEN OVER THE PAST MONTH OR TWO. TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 20 KFT ACTUALLY WARMER IN RELATION TO AREAS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. SREF ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE DECENT AGREEMENT AND LITTLE DEVIATION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT... THOUGH LARGE SPREADS ON QPF ARE NOTED UP TO 1/3 OF AN INCH. PER PREVIOUS PERFORMANCES OF MODELS ON SIMILAR SYSTEMS AND NATURE OF SYSTEM...HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHEST POPS AND BEST BET FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERMAN...DALLAS...WACO...TEMPLE LINE THROUGH TUES MORNING. WELL LIKELY ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH (FFA) ACROSS THESE WRN AREAS THROUGH TUES MORNING. UPDATED DISCUSSION/FCSTS TO BE ISSUED BY 430 AM. AFTERWARD(TUES THRU WED AFTN)...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE MAY SEE BOUTS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AS +2.00 PWATS SURGE NWD FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER THE MAJORITY OF N TX. WEAK...NOCTURNAL LLJ(S) DEVELOPING LATE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS. WILL TEND TO TREND EVENINGS TO JUST SCATTERED POTENTIAL WITH LOSS OF HEATING...WITH TRENDS OF BETTER LIFT AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOCUS WITHIN AND JUST EAST OF THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW...AS IT DRIFTS NEWD OVER RED RIVER VALLEY/SRN OK THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT FUTURE EXTENSIONS AND ISSUANCE(S) OF FLOOD WATCHES THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. BY WED NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL BE FLOATING AROUND SOMEWHERE TO THE N/NW OF N TX WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER WRN OK/TX AREAS WITH POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL MCS(S). TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PINPOINT THIS...BUT WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS OVER NW COUNTIES THROUGH WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY LIFT NE AWAY FROM AREA BY THIS COMING WEEKEND AND HELD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL STAY NEAR MOS IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT GO A LITTLE BELOW ON EXTENDED HIGH TEMPS WITH WET GROUNDS...CLOUD COVER...AND TENDENCY OF MOS GUIDANCES TO RISE TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. MAY HAVE NOT TONED THEM DOWN ENOUGH...BUT FOR NOW WILL WAIT N SEE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 86 73 83 72 84 / 60 60 80 60 60 WACO, TX 86 74 84 74 86 / 70 70 80 50 50 PARIS, TX 86 71 81 71 84 / 40 50 80 60 60 DENTON, TX 85 73 83 71 84 / 60 60 80 60 60 MCKINNEY, TX 85 72 82 71 84 / 50 50 80 60 60 DALLAS, TX 86 73 83 71 85 / 50 60 80 60 60 TERRELL, TX 86 73 82 73 85 / 40 50 80 60 60 CORSICANA, TX 85 72 84 72 85 / 50 50 80 50 50 TEMPLE, TX 85 71 84 73 86 / 70 70 80 50 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ091>093-100>104-115>120-129>134-141>145-156>159. && $$ 99/99/99