000 FXUS64 KHGX 181754 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1254 PM CDT WED APR 18 2007 .AVIATION... STUBBORN OVC-BKN 2-3K FT DECK COMING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LOW. FORECASTING NO CLEARING IN THIS RECENT TAF PACKAGE AS SCT-BKN DECK MIXES OUT LITTLE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE AMPLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SCT-BKN CIRRUS DECK THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. MANY NORTHERN HUBS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWERING VISBIES...AS LOW AS 3-4 SM WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF MIFG-BR UNDER WEAKENING POST-MIDNIGHT VEERING WINDS. 31 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT WED APR 18 2007/ UPDATE... FEW CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT IN THE NORTH. 40 && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT WED APR 18 2007/ AVIATION... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AREAS OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AS SURFACE WIND SPEEDS INCREASED A LITTLE AND BECAME A BIT MORE WESTERLY. ALL EYES NOW TURN TO THE NORTH WHERE MAINLY MVFR CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY HAS THIS CLOUD DECK MOVING ACROSS KUTS AND KCXO WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. NOT REALLY SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THIS DECK WILL GET. WILL KEEP TAF SITES FROM IAH SOUTHWARD CLEAR OF THE LOW STUFF AND AMEND THESE SITES BASED ON TRENDS DURING THE UPCOMING MORNING HOURS. 42 && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT WED APR 18 2007/ DISCUSSION... DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO OUR CWFA THIS MORNING AS BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA. STILL QUITE MOIST NEAR SURFACE OVER SOUTHWEST ZONES AND WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THIS AREA BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LBDT2 PROFILER INDICATE 20 KT WINDS AT 500 METERS WITH PATT2 INDICATING WNW 25 KT WINDS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVERING SOUTHERN HALF OF CWFA. 11 TO 3.9 MICRON IR LOOP INDICATE CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUD COVER OVER NORTH TEXAS SPREADING SOUTHEAST. SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND FIELD AND DEWPOINT ANALYSIS WOULD INDICATE FRONT APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES BEHIND DRY LINE THAT HAS PUSHED ACROSS CWFA OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING LATE THURSDAY. NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD SEE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR REGION. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TO OUR REGION BY THURSDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER EAST TO THE GULF AND EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE COMING WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH TEXAS. THIS SHORT WAVE IS NOT STRONG AND MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF OUR CWFA ON SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS INDICATED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TO MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NEXT WEEK AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY. WITH ONSHORE ONGOING FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND DEEPENING MOIST LAYER...OUR RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GO HIGHER TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE SHALL SEE. 37 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 55 81 59 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 HOUSTON (IAH) 58 83 60 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 GALVESTON (GLS) 64 77 65 76 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...40 AVIATION/MARINE...31/47