000 FXUS63 KFGF 180811 AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 311 AM CDT WED APR 18 2007 .SHORT TERM... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ERN ND/NW MN TODAY KEEPING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN VERY DRY UP THROUGH 300 MB. THUS FULL SUN EXPECTED. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WITH DEVELOPING SFC LOW NEAR BILLINGS MONTANA...SFC GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TODAY RESULTING IN A BIT MORE WIND TODAY OVER ERN ND. 850 MB TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO TODAY AND THUS SHOULD SEE HIGHS 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE THOSE OF YESTERDAY AT MOST SITES. THIS WOULD PUT MIDDLE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN LOOK FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM COLORADO. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SWINGING MAIN 500 MB LOW CENTER FROM UTAH/NRN COLORADO NORTHWARD INTO ERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY...WITH VORT LOBE EAST INTO NRN SD/SW ND BY 00Z FRI. GOOD UPPER LEVEL Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM AT 00Z FRI AND NARROW BUT SUFFICIENTLY STRONG 850 MB THETA-E BAND JUST NORT OF THE VORT LOBE FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS. FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT DOES WEAKEN QUITE A BIT DURING THE NIGHT AS IT MOVES THRU ERN ND/NW MN AND REACHES THE CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY MORNING. THUS WOULD LOOK FOR A ROBUST BAND OF SHOWERS TO APPROACH SE ND LATE THURS AFTN AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THURS NIGHT AND THEN OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FLOWS WELL IN CURRENT FCST AND WITH HPC QPF GRIDDS WHICH HAVE UP TO 0.40 INCH QPF SCNTRL ND/NCNTRL SD THU AFTN AND THEN .10 OR LESS NE ND/NW MN LATE THU NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS DID UP LOWS THU NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE KEPT CONTINUITY FROM PREV FCST. GFS IS QUITE WARM ON FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C IN THE SOUTH...AND ITS MAVMOS SHOWING NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH. DID NOT GO THAT FAR...BUT DID RAISE TEMPS A BIT ON FRIDAY IN THE SOUTH AS SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT LOBE FRIDAY MIDDAY-AFTN IN SE ND. .LONG TERM... IN REGARDS TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SYSTEM...18Z TUE AND 00Z WED GFS RUNS HAVE SPED UP SPEED OF SYSTEM AND KEEPS IT AN OPEN 500 MB WAVE INSTEAD OF A CLOSED SYSTEM. THIS SOLN IS FASTER THAN ECMWF/CANDIAN SOLNS AND ATTM CONSENSUS OF OTHER OFFICES IS TO GO WITH THE SLOWER SOLN WHICH WAS THE BASIS OF THE PREV FCST. IDEA OF BRINGING PCPN INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH BEST CHC SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. DID HANG ON TO CHC POPS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY DESPITE DRY SOLN FROM 00Z GFS. SHOWALTERS DROP BELOW -2C AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO THAT THUNDER A GOOD BET SAT AFTN/EVE. && .AVIATION... CLEAR THRU 06Z THU. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 13-18 KT SUSTAINED 16Z ONWARD IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND DVL REGION. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ RIDDLE