000 FXUS62 KILM 180631 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 230 AM EDT WED APR 18 2007 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE WEEKEND...AND CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... THE TREMENDOUS WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A MUCH WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ADVANCING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OUR FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY IN THE NARROW CLEAR ZONE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROF WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER TODAY...BUT IS PROGGED TO DAMP AS IT MOVES EAST. GFS VORTICITY FIELD SEEMS TO HAVE A LOT OF FEEDBACK...WHICH EXPLAINS THE 20-30ISH POPS FOR TODAY IN THE MAV GUIDANCE. BETWEEN THOSE ISSUES AND THE GENERAL LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WILL NOT CARRY ANY POPS FOR TODAY. MAX TEMPS LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM MID 60S ON THE NORTHERN TIER TO AROUND 70 INLAND SC. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER S/W TROF ILLUSTRATED NICELY ON THE IR SAT IMAGERY IS PROGGED TO DAMPEN SOME AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA TONIGHT. CURRENT MOISTURE WITH IT TO WRING OUT BY THE TIME IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA. WILL BE GENEROUS THOUGH AND EXHIBIT JUST A 20 POP TONIGHT THRU 12Z THU. WILL KEEP RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER S/W TROF LATE IN THE DAY. THIS S/W SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND EVENTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE TOO...ITS DYNAMICS SHULD MAKE UP FOR THAT. WILL GO WITH 40 POPS THURSDAY EVENING. BY FRIDAY...THIS UPPER S/W TROF WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL INDICATE PARTIAL CLEARING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO REMAIN BEHIND ON FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY OBSERVE DIURNAL CU/SC WITH FLATTENED TOPS. TEMPS TO CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW THE CLIMO NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THRU THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM WEATHER IN OUR CWA...VERY QUIET WEATHER. COOL AND DRY UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY...WITH A WARMING RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND FLATTENING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GIVE US HIGHS AROUND 80 BY THE END OF IT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY LOWER 70S SATURDAY...MID 70S SUNDAY...UPPER 70S MONDAY...AND AROUND 80 TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEAK LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT PRECIP IS TOO LOW A PROBABILITY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS A BKN MID DECK. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... LOOK FOR WINDS TO COME AROUND TO NORTH BY DAYBREAK AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS IN BEHIND THE STRONG OFFSHORE LOW. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SURGE WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS TO PERSIST. SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER S/W TROF TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY OBSERVE A BRIEF SHOT OF CAA UNDER NE WINDS AROUND 15 KT. THE 2ND UPPER S/W TROF TO PASS NEARLY OVERHEAD AND WILL PROVIDE A MUCH TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN ITS PREDECESSOR DID EARLY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION WILL HAVE A DECENT CAA SURGE...AND AS A RESULT WINDS AND SEAS WILL APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT WINDS AND SEAS IN SCEC CONDITIONS AND WILL AWAIT ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS IF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE WARRANTED. THE MONSTOR LOW WELL OFF THE NE STATES WILL EVENTUALLY PROVIDE A DECENT GROUND SWELL. HOWEVER AM NOT CONFIDENT YET THAT IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE ILM WATERS AND AS A RESULT...MY SEAS WILL BASICALLY BE OF THE WIND DRIVEN VARIETY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THE LONG TERM ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SEE A DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND REMAIN LESS THAN FLAG CRITERIA. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAS NEAR TERM...RAS AVIATION...RAS SHORT TERM...HOEHLER