000 FXUS61 KBGM 180538 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 138 AM EDT WED APR 18 2007 .AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... WIDESPREAD OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE OVER REGION REMAINS FIXED IN LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WILL FORECAST MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH SOME TEMPO IFR ON THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5-10 KTS. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TO 3500-4500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. DJP && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2007/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY CHANGES TO LOWER WINDS AND ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS. STILL SOME SHOWERS GOING ON AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. HYDROLOGY... HARVARD ON THE EAST BRANCH DELAWARE SLOWLY FALLING BUT STILL CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE. WARNING WAS DROPPED THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER STILL RISING WITH SNOW MELT. BAINBRIDGE EXPECTED TO CREST SOON JUST UNDER FLOOD STAGE. DOWNSTREAM CONKLIN WILL ALSO CREST JUST UNDER FLOOD STAGE LATE TUESDAY. WITH HARDLY ANY NEW QPF ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF WILL BE SNOW MELT. TMEPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 30S FOR NEXT 24 HOURS SO RUNOFF WILL BE SLOW. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2007/ SYNOPSIS... LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE OFF THE NE COAST WILL SLOWLY PULL OUT W/GRADUALLY IMPVNG CONDITIONS OVER THE RGN....WITH MODERATING TEMPS AND WX MORE APPROPRIATE FOR MID APRIL RETURNING BY THE WEEKEND. IT PRBLY WONT BE UNTIL FRI MRNG BEFORE WE ARE TOTALLY FREE FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SVRL S/WVS ROTATING ARND THE LARGE UPR LOW. ONE PASSING THIS AFTN WITH BAND OF SHRA/SHSN. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES FURTHER THAN A DAY OUT ALWAYS DIFFICULT. REALLY CANT RULE OUT SCT PCPN AT ANY TIME OVER THE NXT 48 HRS. MDLS INDICATE PSSG OF ANOTHER S/WV TNGT, MAINLY AFFECTING ERN ZONES, WITH ANOTHER FCST FOR TMRW NGT. AT ANY RATE, CHC POPS SHUD COVER IT, WITH BETTER POTNL FOR -SHSN AT NGT WHEN TEMPS COOL. ANY SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT. AS FOR TEMPS, IT APPEARS THAT MOS VALUES ARE ON THE WARM SIDE, SPCLY THE NAM. A LOOK UPSTREAM SHOWED VERY COOL 925 TEMPS UPSTREAM. HARD TO SEE AN AXIS OF +4C DVLPNG OVER THE BGM CWA AS PER NAM12. WEVE GOT SNOW COVER, AND XPCT THAT SUMMER EQUATIONS HAVE DIFFICULTY IN THIS TYPE OF SITN. AM ALSO XPCTNG ALOT OF CLD COVER THRU F48. BASICALLY FOLLOWED PREV FCST, TRENDING MAXES TWDS HIGHEST 3-HRLY GFS VALUES AS OPPOSED TO THE 12-HR MAX. AS FOR THE CLD COVER, SOME DIFFS ARISE SPCLY ON THU WITH NAM QUICKER TO CLEAR THINGS OUT. PREFERED TO STAY CLOSE TO PREV FCST, WITH CLDY TO MC SKIES PREVAILING INTO THU. EVEN IF WE DO GET A FEW BREAKS DURING ON THU, WOULD SPCT ANY HOLES TO FILL IN QUICKLY WITH STRATO-CU. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LEFTOVER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PINWHEEL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS CUTOFF OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC BEGINS TO PULL EAST AS AN OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...THIS PATTERN SHIFTS EAST WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE MODERATING WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW UNTIL THE CREST OF THE SFC RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OMEGA BLOCK MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THIS DOESNT APPEAR TO HAPPEN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS POINT...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY MOVE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA...LIKELY BRINGING US OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER. MOST OF THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE PCP FREE. THERE COULD BE A RESIDUAL SHOWER ON FRIDAY MORNING...BUT AFTER THAT POINT...THE NEXT CHC FOR PCP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY...AND MORE LIKELY TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE PCP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HEAVY. IT WILL ALSO TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN. HYDROLOGY...CONKLIN MAY APRCH FS TMRW AFTN, OTRW NO PRBLMS ARE XPCTD IN THE SHORT TERM. PTRN OF GRADUALLY RISING TEMPS WILL FAVOR A NICE, SLOW RELEASE OF THE SNOWPACK CRNTLY OVER THE FCST AREA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. PA...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...DJP