000 
FXUS62 KMHX 161330
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
930 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...A MAJOR COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE NORTHEAST AFTER BRINGING SIG RAINFALL TO E NC
YESTERDAY. LOOKING AT WV SAT A VISIBLE DRY SLOT IS WRAPPING AROUND
GA/SC AND UP INTO THE E EDGE OF THE LOW. THIS DRY SLOT CLEARED UP
THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER E NC LAST NIGHT...HOWEVER LOOKING
UPSTREAM SOME MORE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW APPEARS TO BE
PUSHING S. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR AT THE
SFC...WITH LINGER MOISTURE WILL SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THICKER N. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE MIXING WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS (OVER 40KT
ON MHX SOUNDING) SO WIND ADV STILL IN EFFECT. ALONG WITH STRONGER
WINDS DRIER AIR WILL ALSO MIX DOWN DROPPING DEW POINTS INTO THE
LOWER 30S/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z-12Z/...CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BE 
FILLED IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN 5-6K FT CLOUDS DUE TO STEEP 
LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING MOISTURE. WINDS WILL INCREASE ESP IN GUST 
THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BRING SOME 35+ KT WINDS 
DOWN TO THE SFC. 

&&

.MARINE...BUOY OBS INDICATE HIGHER SEAS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS MRNG WITH 41025 INDICATING 13 FT ATTM.
MEANWHILE NEAR SHORE SEAS HAVE BEEN KNOCKED DOWN DUE TO OFFSHORE
WINDS. SEAS 2 MILES OUT FROM DUCK PIER ARE ONLY 3 FT WHILE 41035
REPORTING 6 FT. WILL NEED TO REFLECT THIS IN UPDATED FORECAST
WORDING WITH HIGHER SEAS GENERALLY BEYOND 10 MILES AND MUCH LESSER
SEAS NEAR SHORE. STRONG GALES STILL INDICATED MOST BUOYS EXCEPT
NEAR SHORE BUOYS WHICH ARE STRONG SMALL CRAFT TO MINIMAL GALE.
WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH THE DAY AS GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE
TIGHT WITH DEEP 970 LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE NERN U.S. GRADIENT WILL
LESSEN VERY LITTLE INTO THE EVENING. WILL RAISE GALES FOR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND THIS MRNG AS WINDS AT KECG ALREADY 29 KT GUSTING
TO 40 KT AND SHOULD GET GOOD MIXING OVER THE SOUND EVEN THOUGH
FLOW IS FROM LAND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FOR THE MOST PART FROM 1
1/2 TO AS MUCH AS 5 1/2 ACROSS THE REGION ADDED MUCH NEEDED SOIL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. ON THE FLIP SIDE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 30%
OR LESS TODAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GROUNDS STILL SATURATED FROM YESTERDAY A RFW IS NOT
NEEDED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>095-098-103-104.

MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SJ/MLF