000 FXUS61 KLWX 161226 AAA AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 826 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007 .UPDATE... I/LL BE CLEANING UP WND HEADLINE ASAP. CONTEXT OF FCST REMAINS THE SAME. BTTM LN...IT WL BE A WINDY DAY. EVEN IF WERE NOT MEETING CRITERIA ATTM...LIKELIHOOD OF DOING SO LATER VERY REAL. MOREOVER... IMPACTS ALREADY BEING FELT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007/ SHORT TERM /TODAY-TNGT/... IT FEELS LK IVE HAD TO BRING MY A-GAME TO WORK ON A LOT OF THE MID SHIFTS THIS YR. ANOTHER TOUGH FCST AS INTENSE LOW ALONG NJ CST WRAPS UP EVEN TIGHTER. THERES A FLAG OUT OUR WINDOW...AND I CANT RECALL SEEING IT OUT SO STRAIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NGT. VWP SHOWS 60 KT AT 030. BUFKIT SNDGS SHOW LAPSE RATE STEEPENING THIS MRNG...WHICH WL ALLOW A LOT OF THAT WIND DOWN TO THE SFC. AS A RESULT HV DECIDED TO PUT UP HI WIND WRNG FOR ENTIRE CWA FM LATE MRNG THRU ERLY EVE. ITS GOING TO BE WINDY EVERYWHERE...AND I DIDNT FEEL I COULD SLICE THE PIE THAT THIN TO DECIDE WHO WOULD HV ADVSRY (SUSTAINED 31-39 MPH AND/OR G 46-57) AND WRNG (GRTR THAN THOSE NUMBERS). WE RCVD A SPOTTER REPORT ON THE BRDR OF PAGE/MADISON CO. OF TREES DOWN EST G60...AND BLV PTNL IS THERE FOR MANY MR DOWNED TREES/POWER OUTAGES TDA. BECAUSE I UPPED THE ADVSRY TO WRNG ESSENTIALLY FM I-95 E THIS CREATES AN AWKWARD 3 HEADLN NPW...WHAT IT REALLY MEANS IS STRONG WINDS WL GET STRONGER DURG MRNG HRS...PEAK DURG AFTN..AND THEN START TO DCRS THIS EVE...ALTHO THE WIND WL STILL BE VERY NOTICABLE TNGT. GIVEN LO LVL INSTABILITY I CANT RULE OUT RW E OF MTNS TDA..BUT THINK QPFS WL BE LOW AND WIND WL BE A MUCH BIGGER PROB. WE HV A SNOW ADVSRY FOR 2-4 IN UPSLOPE SNSH IN OUR FAR W SLIVER WHICH RMNS IN GOOD SHAPE. NWRLY WINDS WL CONT THIS EVE...DAYSHIFT MAY HV TO XTND SNOW ADVSRY BYND 6 PM THIS EVE. ANOTHER CHILLY NGT...WINDS STILL 20-30 OVR MUCH OF THE AREA. LONG TERM (TUE-SUN)... DEEP LOW PRES OVR THE WRN ATLC RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGH WIND EVENT WILL BE MOVING FURTHER AWAY TUE WITH PRES GRADIENT RELAXING. STILL BREEZY TUE WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS FINALLY DROP BELOW 10 KTS TUE NIGHT AS DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE. A S/W TROUGH IS FCST TO CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT-THU AND SPREAD CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS ON THU. AFTER THAT RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. BY NEXT MON TEMPS WILL GET CLOSE TO 80F UNDER SWRLY FLOW AND H85 TEMPS ABV +10C. NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. AVIATION...SIGMET N2 EXISTS FOR OCNL SVR TURB BLO 120 OVR MUCH OF THE CWA. NOT A PLEASANT DAY TO FLY. MARINE...GALE WRNG IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. HV ISSUED AN MWS FOR TIDES 1-2 FT BLO NRML THIS AFTN/TNGT. HYDROLOGY...PETERSBURG GAGE HAS DROPPED BLO FLD STAGE. MARTINSBURG AND CONOCOCHEAGUE RMN SLTLY OVR FLD STAGE BUT APPEAR TO HV PEAKED. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR DCZ001. MD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ003>007- 009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502. SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ501. VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ021-025>031- 036>042-050>057. WV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ050>055- 501>504. SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ501-503. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>537. && $$ UPDATE...HTS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ABW/ROSA