000 FXUS63 KICT 240844 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 344 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2007 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL AGAIN BE HOW MUCH COVERAGE WE WILL SEE FROM CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TODAY: LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS IS YIELDING TO QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THAT REGION THIS MORNING WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE LATEST IR LOOP IS SHOWING THE TOPS BEGINNING TO WARM SOME WITH THE LIGHTNING DATA ALSO BECOMING LESS FREQUENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN PLACE WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO FEED THIS REGION FOR A WHILE AND YIELD TO GOOD PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. THE MODELS ARE TENDING TO SHOW THE FLOW VEERING OUT SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. HOW FAR EAST IS THE MAIN QUESTION. WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN PLACE AND DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AROUND 295K WE MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35/135 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS MORNING. DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THINGS CLEAR OUT AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MISANALYSED WILL BE CRUCIAL THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE DEPICTION OF ANY PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRY LINE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. IF WE DO SEE A SECONDARY BOUNDARY DEVELOP THEN WE MAY SEE SOME SUPERCELLS DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DUE TO STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR AND MIXED LAYER CAPES BETWEEN 1500-2000J/KG. THIS REGION IS ALSO CLOSE TO A REGION WHERE LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE. 0-3KM CAPES ARE AROUND 150J/KG. AS A RESULT...WE MAY SEE A TORNADO OR TWO AND LARGE HAIL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS THE LOW TO MEDIUM CATEGORY. TONIGHT: THE THREAT FOR SOME SUPERCELLS WILL STILL EXIST IN THE EVENING MAINLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER SOUTH...WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT LAST TOO LONG THOUGH SINCE THEY WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS YOU HEAD INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT GOES INTO NEBRASKA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE MEDIUM CATEGORY. SUNDAY: THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE SURFACE-700MB FLOW VEERING OUT WHICH MAY YIELD TO A SUNNY AND WARM DAY. WE HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO TO REFLECT THIS. WE KEPT POPS IN FOR NOW...BUT THEY MAY BE REMOVED IN LATER SHIFTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE THE CIRRUS COMING BACK INTO THE AREA WITH SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ANTICIPATED MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THEN WE COULD NOT RESIST TO INSERT THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. THE GFS ENSEMBLES/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE SINCE LAST NIGHTS RUN. ANOTHER REASON WHY WE MENTIONED THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD IS BECAUSE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER DOES REALLY EXIT THE AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE LOW TO MEDIUM RANGE. COX && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 74 59 79 57 / 50 30 20 20 HUTCHINSON 73 56 78 56 / 70 40 20 20 NEWTON 72 58 79 57 / 50 30 20 20 ELDORADO 74 60 79 57 / 40 30 20 20 WINFIELD-KWLD 75 60 79 58 / 40 20 20 30 RUSSELL 74 52 74 52 / 80 40 10 10 GREAT BEND 74 53 76 52 / 80 40 10 10 SALINA 74 56 77 55 / 70 40 10 10 MCPHERSON 73 56 78 56 / 70 30 20 10 COFFEYVILLE 81 61 80 61 / 20 20 30 30 CHANUTE 79 61 80 59 / 20 20 20 30 IOLA 78 61 80 59 / 20 20 20 20 PARSONS-KPPF 80 61 80 60 / 20 20 20 30 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$