000 FXUS61 KBGM 240541 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 141 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007 .AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT SFC WINDS INTO THE MRNG HRS, ALTHO MID CLDS WILL BE OVER-SPREADING SRN AND CNTRL SITES IN THE 08-10Z TIME FRAME. MVFR CONDITIONS DVLPNG THIS AFTN AS -SHRA DVLP AND MOV INTO THE RGN. MVFR TO PSBL IFR CONDITIONS XPCTD INTO THE OVRNGT HRS WITH LOW CLDS PERSISTING. SFC WINDS BCMG SRLY THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF THE FNT. SHARP LOW LVL INVERSION EVIDENT IN THE MDL PROFILES LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG, WHICH MAY RESULT IN TURBULENT CONDITIONS, BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO REACH LLWS CRITERIA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 827 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT BUT NOT MAKE IT TO AVP. MIN TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007/ AVIATION /00Z-24Z/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL LAST SIX HOURS OF TAF PERIOD. OVERNIGHT, SCT/BKN CI WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT/BKN MID DECK AROUND 10K FT AT KAVP. SATURDAY MORNING 14-15Z, MID DECK WILL OVERSPREAD ENTIRE AREA WITH CIGS 8K-10K FT. BTW 19Z-21Z, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KAVP, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND CIGS. AT KAVP, SHOWERS MAY NOT START UNTIL AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MID MORNING THEN SE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. RRM PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WAS HELPING TO SLOWLY SUPPRESS SFC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH INTO PA...WITH CLEARING TREND UNDERWAY OVER UPSTATE NY. WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SKIES EVEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVER NEPA...AND MAINLY CLEAR FOR CNY. WILL TRIM OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT FROM PREV FORECAST WITH THE CLEARING AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH. MANY AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID-UPR 20S IN THE CNY VALLEYS...AND NEAR 30 FOR NEPA. ON SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM S/WV TROF MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AND INTERACT WITH STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...FORMING A WEAK NEW LOW WHICH THEN ZIPS THROUGH OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CNY/NEPA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TAPER OFF SOMETIME BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GFS/NAM SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCE IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH REFLECTS IN QPF FIELDS. THINK THE RAW MODEL OUTPUT QPF OF 0.5-0.75 WILL BE HIGH END. MEAN ENSEMBLE QPF OF QUARTER TO HALF INCH SHOULD BE CLOSER TO REALITY...GIVEN SPEED OF SYSTEM AND RECENT MODEL QPF TRENDS OF OVERDOING RAINFALL. A BIT OF COLDER AIR SAGS SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN CNY MAY SEE A BRIEF MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE PRECIP CUTS OFF LATE. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY. WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE LLVLS...LEANED WITH COOLER SIDE OF THE VARIOUS MOS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS. TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM FROM ALASKA. THIS WILL FORCE EVER-BUILDING HEIGHTS IN THE EAST...WITH THE BIGGEST HEIGHT RISES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MAIN WEATHER MAKERS WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE TUESDAY EVENT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE QPF WITH THE FRIDAY FRONT...BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ON AMOUNTS. BY TUESDAY AND BEYOND... MORNING LOWS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH FREEZING WITH DEWPOINTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING NEARLY ALL OF THE TIME. THIS SHOULD ENSURE CONTINUED SNOWMELT WITH ELIMINATION OF REMAINING SNOWPACK IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ045-055-056. PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038. && $$ AVIATION...