000 FXUS62 KMHX 060828 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 328 AM EST WED DEC 6 2006 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AS SHORT WAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE ERN U.S. LOW LVL SRLY RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS HIGHER TODAY THAN PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...MORE IN LINE WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES...AND PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MSTR...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MSTR WILL BE CONFINED TO ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. NAM AND GFS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF QPF AND BEST POPS ALONG THE COAST BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MRNG. WILL INDICATE LOW LIKELY POPS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A DECREASE POPS FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE. MODELS PUSH SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA ON THURSDAY WITH A SHIFT TO WNW WINDS AND STRONG CAA AND SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRES SHOULD BUILD INTO THE RGN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI WITH MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS. TEMPS SHOULD DROP QUITE A BIT. WILL LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS AND FRIDAY LOWS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. FRIDAY HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE IN SOME LOCATIONS TO GET TO 40 BUT FOR NOW WILL MENTION MAINLY LOWER 40S FOR MOST OF THE CWA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...COLDEST TEMPS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER 20S MANY LOCATIONS INLAND AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY WARM BY LATE WEEKEND AS HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST. GFS NOW HINTING AT INCREASING MSTR FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AS UPPER TROF BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND LOW LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SRLY AHEAD OF THE TROF. FOR NOW WILL OPT TO LEAVE EXTENDED BASICALLY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES. && .AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY WITH SOME SCT-BKN STCU POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KEWN AND KOAJ TERMINALS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 3K FT. WINDS WILL REMAIN S/SW AOB 10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS AFT 12Z THU WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER FROPA. && .MARINE...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC HIGH PRES JUST OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE N/NE 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGHOUT. SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AOB 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON THU. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT 15 TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PROLONGED S/SW FETCH MAY BOOST SEAS INTO THE 6 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS EARLY THU BUT WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT AFTER FROPA THU AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT RELAXES. WILL KEEP SCA GOING FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS FROM 09Z-18Z THU DUE TO HIGHER SEAS. CAA BEHIND FRONT LOOKS VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT LAGS INITIAL WIND SHIFT ABOUT 8-12 HOURS. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAA FEEL GALES ARE LIKELY OVER ALL WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. WILL INDICATE THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH NO HEADLINE GIVEN EXPECTED START TIME OF EVENT. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW FOR THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND THEN CAA RAPIDLY DIMINISHES ALONG WITH WEAKENING GRADIENT AS STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST FROM THE TENN VALLEY. HIGHEST SEAS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WATERS GIVEN ALONG SHORE COMPONENT WITH 7 TO 10 FT EXPECTED WITH 4 TO 7 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES LINGERS OVER THE AREA. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. && $$ SHORT TERM...FAUCETTE LONG TERM...FAUCETTE AVIATION...WINGENROTH MARINE...WINGENROTH