000 FXUS65 KGGW 291612 AAA AFDGGW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 912 AM MST WED NOV 29 2006 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY... NOT SEEING MUCH EVIDENCE OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...THEREFORE DROPPED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW TO OCCASIONAL FLURRIES. ASOS SENSORS ARE LIKELY REACTING TO BLOWING SNOW SINCE MOST IS OF THE LIGHT AND DRY VARIETY WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES. DID INCREASE THE MORNING WINDS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND AFTERNOON WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND WINDS REMAINING STRONG. WILL UPDATE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO ADD WORDS TO ABOUT STRONG WINDS OVER FORT PECK LAKE. SCT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LOW SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR THIS EARLY MORNING WEAKENING AND SHEARING AS MAIN SUPPORT FOR THE SYSTEM MOVES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. NEXT SYSTEM SEEN CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH LONG MOISTURE PLUME MOVING INTO WESTERN CANADA. JET STREAM QUITE PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM AND MODELS SEEM TO SHOW AN ACCELERATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS FLURRIES. LOCAL DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW THAT HAS BEEN A PROBLEM OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL NOT BE PROBLEM MOST OF THE EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING DESPITE EXPECTED HIGHER WINDS (DUE TO LACK OF SNOWCOVER). MOISTURE WITH WAA LOOK TO BE THE CONTRIBUTORS FOR THE CONTINUED PRECIP TODAY. WIND CHILLS CURRENTLY MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA MANY PLACES AND LOOKING GOOD FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL NOON. THEREFORE WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TO GOING WIND CHILL ADVISORY. CONDITIONS EASE UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SYSTEMS AT THIS POINT BEGIN TO ACCELERATE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKING TO DROP DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW CANADA LATE TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED LOW TRACKS OUT OF CENT ALBERTA SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. ARCTIC AIR LOOKS TO MAKE ANOTHER VISIT TO THE CWA FRIDAY. SKIES LOOK TO QUICKLY CLOUD OVER FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM WITH THURSDAY/S SYSTEM SINCE IT US SUCH A QUICK MOVER AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY...THUS DOWNSLOPING. ANOTHER CHANCE THEN LOOKS TO COME FRIDAY WITH OR BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. -TFJ .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... DECEMBER TO START WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR THIS WEEKEND...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BIGGEST CHANGES MADE WERE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRI NIGHT & SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER ARCTIC BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH DOES NOT LOOK TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AND COLD AS THE CURRENT AIRMASS AS IT LOOKS TO ME MORE OF A MIX OF ARCTIC AND POLAR PACIFIC. STILL ALL THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BACK DOWN TO -15 TO -20C FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BE ENOUGH TO SEND TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THERE MAYBE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME LOOK LIGHT. THE BIGGEST CHANGE MADE DURING THIS TIME WAS TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT MORE. SAT NIGHT & SUNDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO EASTERN MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. POTENTIAL FOR IT TO GET QUITE COLD SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SKY WILL BECOME CLEAR...WITH LIGHT WIND AND SNOW COVERED GROUND. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT MORE...AND POTENTIAL FOR IT TO GET EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE A BIT SUNDAY...BUT WITH SUCH A COLD START THEY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN THE EAST WITH 20S WEST. AGAIN...MADE SOME TWEAKS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. SOME MODEL AND MODEL RUNS THE LAST DAY OR TWO HAVE HINTED AT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR EARLY IN THE WEEK...WHILE OTHERS NOT SO MUCH. LAST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS HAS FLIPPED BACK TO A WARMER SOLUTION OF BRINGING SOME UPPER RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 540S (DAM). THIS IS ABOUT 300-350 (DAM) HIGHER THAN SOME OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. NEEDLESS TO SAY THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR DAY 8 WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF NORMAL UNTIL THERE IS MORE CLEAR EVIDENCE THAT IT WILL WARM UP. IF MUCH WARMER AIR DOES TRY TO MAKE A COMEBACK THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE AREAS THAT NOW HAVE DEEPER SNOW PACK TO AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE SOUTH. CB && .AVIATION... MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES EARLY TODAY. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE UNDER ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOWL EARLY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MUCH LIGHTER BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL RISE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CLEAR CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...SO VFR TO RETURN. JAZ && .CLIMATE... SO FAR THIS MONTH 6.5 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN AT THE AIRPORT IN GLASGOW...WHICH MAKES THIS NOVEMBER THE SNOWIEST SINCE 2003. A TOTAL OF 11.9 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN THIS SEASON SINCE THE FIRST TRACE OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED ON SEPTEMBER 17TH. DESPITE THE COLD START AND FINISH TO THE MONTH...TEMPERATURES WERE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FROM THE 4TH THROUGH THE 24TH...AND THIS MONTH SHOULD END UP GOING DOWN IN THE RECORD BOOKS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD WAS SET AT THE AIRPORT IN GLASGOW YESTERDAY. THE 3.9 INCHES OF SNOW BROKE THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD OF 2 INCHES...SET IN 1975. CB && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-DANIELS-SHERIDAN- WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-RICHLAND-DAWSON- PRAIRIE-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY- EASTERN ROOSEVELT. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WIBAUX. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW