000 
FXUS61 KRLX 100130
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
906 PM EDT SAT SEP 9 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. STILL EXPECT RIVER AND VALLEY FOG 
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 650 PM EDT SAT SEP 9 2006/ 

AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATING THE REGION. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR IN FOG 
AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT BKW (MVFR) MAINLY BETWEEN 07Z AND 13Z...BUT 
GENERALLY NOT QUITE AS THICK AND FOR A SHORTER DURATION AS COMPARED 
TO LAST NIGHT. AFTER 13Z...VFR WITH GENERALLY SCT CLOUDS. 

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 338 PM EDT SAT SEP 9 2006/ 

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON 
MONDAY. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MOST ANY LOCATION COULD 
SEE A THUNDERSTORM...BUT BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST 
CLOSEST TO THE ENERGY AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT. COLD FRONT 
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF 
MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE...WITH MORE ORGANIZED 
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ON THE WESTERN FLANK. FRONT SHOULD THEN MOVE 
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE OF 
PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN AND PROVIDES DRY WEATHER 
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. 

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 340 PM EDT SAT SEP 9 2006/ 

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

DIURNAL CONVECTION IS TRYING TO FIRE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
ZONES OF THE CWA...BUT THE AIR MASS IS A TAD DRY...AND EACH LITTLE
POP GETS EATEN UP BY THE DRY AIR SOON AFTER EACH ATTEMPTED CELL
FORMS. OTHER CONVECTION IS SUCCESSFULLY FORMING IN CENTRAL KY WITH
A SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST...SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. BUT I
DID LOWER POPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE EDGING INTO THE
CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...WILL
MAKE FOG CONDITIONS NOT AS IDEAL AS RECENT NIGHT. I STILL DO
EXPECT FOG...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE PATCHY AND LESS DENSE
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS...I MAINLY USED MET
GUIDANCE...AS THE MAV HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY GOING TO LOW DURING
THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. BARELY ANY CHANGE WAS MADE TO TEMPS
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE GOING FORECAST HAD SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS SPREADING INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE FORMATION OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE BRINGING THIS IN
A BIT EARLIER...AND WITH SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...I ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON THE APPALACHIAN EDGE
OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...

I EXPECT FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT WITH A LITTLE MORE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INTERMITTENT HIGH CLOUDS COMING IN...THE SET UP WILL
NOT BE AS IDEAL AS RECENT NIGHTS. I STILL SEE MOST TAF SITES /ALL
EXCEPT KBKW AND KCKB/ FINDING THEIR WAY DOWN TO LIFR...BUT FOR
LESS OF A DURATION COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMV