000 FXUS66 KLOX 011842 AAA AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 1145 AM PDT FRI SEP 1 2006 NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION .SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...OFFSHORE TRENDS STARTING TO TAKE HOLD THIS MORNING AS PROFILERS ARE SHOWING A LIGHT NORTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE WIND ABOVE 1500 FT AND THE MARINE LYR SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION IS CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. SOUNDINGS AND PROFILERS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT WARMING FROM ABOUT 300 FT TO 2000 FT. AVALON AIRPORT THIS MORNING AT 1600 FT ALREADY 82 WHICH IS 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WHILE MALIBU HILLS AT 1500 FT IS AT 88 DEGREES. SO THE WARMING HAS BEGUN AND WE WILL SEE SOME OF THIS EVEN REACHING THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL ZONES, IF NOT TODAY THEN BY SATURDAY. MARINE LYR CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BEACHES COOLER TODAY. HOWEVER BOTH THE WRF AND GFS ARE SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND ITS POSSIBLE WE WILL BE CLOUD FREE TOMORROW MORNING. IF THIS IS THE CASE, LOOK FOR BEACH TEMPS SAT TO BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. INLAND OF THE BEACHES, NOT MUCH DOUBT WELL BE SEEING TEMPS SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S AND UP TO 105-110 IN THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS (IE. WOODLAND HILLS/CHATSWORTH). WARMEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY. WITH OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASING TO 2 MB OR SO WE SHOULD SEE SOME NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE MTNS AND BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES, GENERALLY 25 MPH OR LESS, CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A SIZABLE EDDY CIRCULATION STARTING UP. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE EDDY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION, SOME COOLER MARINE AIR SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY INLAND, DROPPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. STILL QUITE HOT THOUGH WITH VALLEY HIGHS AGAIN TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK. *** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION *** .LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF HURRICANE JOHN AND WHAT WILL BECOME OF ITS MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONT WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE MTNS AND DSRTS BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTG THRU WED...WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES THANKS TO INCREASING MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLY THAT SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS COULD WORK THEIR WAY W OF THE MTNS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...BUT WITH SO MUCH DISAGREEMENT HAVE NOT MADE MAJOR CHANGES BEYOND MONDAY. SHOULD STILL BE QUITE HOT ON MONDAY...BUT INCREASING MID/HIGH LVL MSTR AND CLOUDS SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TUE THRU THU. && .AVIATION...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE CLEARING BACK TO THE COAST AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE COAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG INVERSION IS DEVELOPING OVER A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF 1000 FEET. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL CAUSE LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO FORM AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER MINIMAL. KLAX WILL HAVE AN EARLY ENCOUNTER WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS EVENING...AROUND 01Z...HOWEVER THE LOWEST CEILING OF 500 FEET AND LOWEST VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL 07Z. IT ALSO MUST BE NOTED THAT THIS FORECAST HAS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR BASED ON THE UNUSUAL CIRCUMSTANCES THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. THE ONLY RULE OF THUMB USED FOR THIS FORECAST IS THAT TYPICALLY WITH A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER UNDER A VERY STRONG MARINE INVERSION...THE LOW CLOUDS TEND TO HUG THE COAST ALL DAY...AND THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE FAR TO GO BEFORE KLAX GETS AFFECTED BY A RATHER LOW CEILING AND VISIBILITY. THE CENTRAL COAST WILL LIKELY SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG SOMETIME THIS EVENING. KSBA WILL PROBABLY REMAIN FREE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT DUE TO NORTHERLY GRADIENTS ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. KOXR WILL HAVE LOCALLY DENSE FOG THIS EVENING. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX). SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...WOFFORD AVIATION...SWEET