000 
FXUS66 KLOX 020021 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
520 PM PDT THU JUN 1 2006

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LOW CLOUDS LINGERING VERY CLOSE TO SHORE 
THIS AFTERNOON AND I EXPECT THEY WILL PUSH INLAND OVERNIGHT AS 
ONSHORE FLOW HAS INCREASED TO OVER 3 MB THIS AFTERNOON. VALLEYS 
SHOULD STAY CLEAR, THOUGH THE MARINE INFLUENCE HAS MADE ITS PRESENCE 
FELT WITH HIGHS DOWN 2 TO 5 DEGREES MOST EVERYWHERE BELOW 1000 FEET 
ELEVATION.

TRENDS NEXT FEW DAYS ARE FOR WARMER HIGHS AND LESS AND LESS MARINE 
LYR. PROBABLY ONE MORE NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG 
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, THEN WEAK OFFSHORE TRENDS SHOULD KICK 
THOSE CLOUDS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY 
NEXT WEEK. ONLY EXCEPTION MAYBE THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE AN 
INCREASING NW FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND TYPICALLY LEADS TO LATE NIGHT 
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE SMX AND LOWER SANTA YNEZ VALLEYS.

LOOK FOR HIGHS BY SAT TO TOP 100 IN THE WARMER VALLEY SPOTS AND EVEN 
THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN LOWER 
80S.

INCREASING NW FLOW OFFSHORE WILL MAKE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR 
WEAK TO MODERATE SUNDOWNER WINDS IN THE SBA AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, 
BUT WE EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

MODELS HINT AT A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB OVER THE 
WEEKEND WITH LIS BELOW 0. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND DRY 
FOR NOW AS ITS TOO SHALLOW A LAYER TO REALLY SEE MUCH DEVELOPMENT, 
BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED MONDAY BUT STILL VERY 
WARM. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT TRENDS AS WELL AS LOWERING 
THICKNESSES WILL BRING A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING TO MOST AREAS 
BY TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE 4 CORNERS HIGH MAY BRING SOME AFTERNOON 
CLOUDS TO THE MOUNTAINS BUT WILL LEAVE OUT POPS FOR NOW. AT SOME 
POINT WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE MARINE LYR RETURNING BUT ITS TOO HARD 
TO SAY AT THIS POINT WHEN THAT WILL BE. WILL LEAVE SKIES CLEAR FOR 
NOW AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS WE GET CLOSER. 

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS HELPING TO DIMINISH THE 
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KSBA WILL 
LIKELY BE VFR THRU MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE LOW CLOUDS MOVE 
BACK IN AROUND 06Z...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE 
IS IN THE E SBA CHANNEL THE LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD OFF TIL LATER 
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO KOXR WITH IFR 
CIGS BY 02Z. FOR KLAX AND KLGB LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE IN BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z. IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT 
FOR KSBP AND KSMO. BY 19Z FRI MOST COASTAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR 
CONDITIONS. ALL INLAND TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THRU FRI...EXCEPT 
POSSIBLY SOME MVFR VSBYS FRI MORNING FOR KBUR.  

$$

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...SIRARD