000 FXUS61 KRLX 301150 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 650 AM EST WED NOV 30 2005 .AVIATION (12Z TO 12Z)... 2000-3500 FT CLOUD DECK UNDER INVERSION SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK UP WEST TO EAST AS INVERSION LOWERS. BORDERING ON MVFR...CIGS MAY ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT BEFORE LIFTING OUT. OTHERWISE W TO SW FLOW TODAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. NO VIS RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHER AND EVEN MIDDLE CLOUD WILL BEGIN APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 356 AM EST WED NOV 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE THRU OH SHOULD NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS GIVEN ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON TRACK TO MISS EVEN FAR NW COUNTIES. IN ITS WAKE...INVERSION WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY TODAY...COUNTERACTING DEEPENING MIXING HEIGHT ONE USUALLY GETS WITH DIURNAL HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY AND MOVES ON ACROSS TONIGHT. TIME HEIGHTS INDEED SHOW THE CLOUD DECK LOWERING SLIGHTLY TODAY. THEY SHOULD EVENTUALLY BREAK UP AS ANY HEATING WE COULD MANAGE OUGHT TO CREATE SOME T-TD SEPARATION AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. FLAT CLOUD LAYER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT W FLOW MAKING FOR WEAK UPSLOPE OUGHT TO KEEP THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BELOW THE SLIGHT CHANCE THRESHOLD. WENT WITH BLEND OF ONGOING FORECAST AND 21Z H85 PLUS 10C OFF ETA12 TO ARRIVE AT HIGHS TODAY...WOUND UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MAV S AND WITH A BLEND OF THE NUMBERS N...EXCEPT WITH THE LOWER MET EKN WITH LOWEST H85 TEMPERATURES AND MOST PERSISTENT CLOUDS. THAT LAST ONE MAY NEED WATCHED FROM THE GUN WITH ONGOING COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING. RADIATIVE COOLING TAKES PLACE TONIGHT...LEANED ON LOW SIDE UP NUMBERS EVEN THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN ARRIVING FROM THE W TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY. LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... FAST MID LVL LOW BRINGS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH LATE THURS. NOT MUCH QPF EXPECTED ON THE FRONT END GIVEN MOSTLY DOWNGLIDE ON THE ISENTROPIC SFC...WHERE HIGHEST SPECIFIC HUMIDITY RESIDES. HWVR GOOD AREA OF DCVA PIVOTING ON THRU AND MODEST EPV FM 0Z FRI TO 12Z FRI BRINGS A FEW TENTHS TO ERN AREAS. THIS COUPLED WITH LLVL CONV PER NW TRAJ...LGT SN ACCUM IS FCST FOR THE NRN AND CNTRL MTNS. THE LLNDS SHUD SEE A DUSTING AT MOST. HIKED UP POPS TO LKLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF WVZ38-46>47 THU NGT. NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE THERMAL FIELD AND STRENGTH OF VORT MAX...WHICH ODES HIGHER CONFIDENCE. PTYPE SHOULD BE RA INITIALLY...BUT WITH H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO -10 TO -12C THU NGT PTYPE SWITCHES TO SN SHORTLY AFT 0Z. ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN MOMENTARILY THUR NGT INTO FRI. DID SLOW EXODUS OF STRATUS IN THE EKN VCNTY FRI MRNG DUE TO THERMAL TROF AT 5KFT MSL HANGING ARND LONGER THAN PVS RUNS. ALTOCU RACES IN FRI AFTN FM THE SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX MAKER. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRAB THE HEADLINES OF THIS FCST PACKAGE. NAM AND GFS VERY SIMILAR IN THE MASS AND THERMAL FIELDS WITH WARM FRONT APPCHNG TWRDS DAWN SAT (F+84). BUFKIT SNDGS FM VARIOUS POINTS WITHIN THE FA SHOW A SHORT PERIOD OF FZRA/SN BEFORE GOING TO RAIN. AS SFC LOW TRACKS ACR SRN KY ENE TO RNK THEN OFF THE EAST COAST FRI NGT THRU THE DAY SAT...THIS PUTS PART OF THE CWA IN THE WINTRY MIX CORRIDOR. INCREASED POPS INTO THE LKLY CATEGORY OVER THE SRN COAL FIELDS. IN ADDITION...DROPPED MINT FRI NGT AND MAXT SAT SEVERAL DEGREES WITH OVC CONDS EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME. GFS PRINTS OUT 3/4 INCH OF QPF I-64 S AND A LTL LESS THAN A 1/2 INCH NRN AREAS FOR DAY3. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TREMENDOUS H10-H8 DTEMP/DT OF 30C WITH WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WINTRY MIX WILL BE INTRODUCED INTO THE HWO TO GET THE WORD OUT. SN AMTNS IN THE MTNS COULD WARRANT HEADLINES OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN A PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW WITH POCKETS OF ENERGY CROSSING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 101 AM EST WED NOV 30 2005) AVIATION (06Z TO 06Z)... VFR SAVE FOR MVFR STRATOCU DECK IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL NOT MIX HIGHER AS WE MOVE FROM THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AS A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MARKING THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER WILL ACT TO COUNTERACT THE NORMAL DIURNAL DEEPENING OF THIS LAYER. DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN ON W FLOW...WHICH IS NOT THE MOST OPTIMAL DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE ANYWAY...WILL BREAK UP THE ABOVE 3KFT DECK OVER THE LOWLANDS AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ALTOGETHER BY LATE THIS MORNING. MVFR DECK IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. W FLOW...A BIT MORE NW AND PERHAPS A BIT GUSTY INN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE LIGHT...WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM LATE TODAY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...TRM