000 FXUS61 KRLX 110913 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 414 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION AND WILL BE REPLACED BY AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER TN/KY TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION TAKING UP RESIDENCE OVER ERN NC BY SAT. OVERALL...THE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH IS VERY DRY SO WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXCEPT FOR SOME THIN CIRRUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. FOR TEMPERATURES...THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.5 ACROSS THE REGION. ADDING THIS TO TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY GETS NUMBERS VERY CLOSE TO THE MAV. THIS ASSUMES THAT THE LIGHT WINDS AND NOVEMBER SUN ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX OUT TO 850 MB. THUS HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH THE MAV ACROSS THE BOARD...EXCEPT AT BKW WHERE THE MET/FWC NUMBER LOOKS MORE REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE BKW WAS 44 ON THURSDAY AND AN 11 DEGREE JUMP WOULD BE MUCH MORE THAN THE 925 WARMING WOULD SUGGEST. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SATURDAY SAVE PERHAPS AT THE CIRRUS LEVEL. GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT GUSTY IN THE WEST BY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC RIDGES...VALLEYS DIFFERENTIAL WITH STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES ON THE FORMER...AND DECOUPLING WITH SOME RADIATION FOR THE LATTER. MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ONSET OF POPS FROM THE WEST FIRST THING SUNDAY MORNING. WITH REMARKABLE MODEL AGREEMENT ON NATURE AND TIMING OF SYSTEM...A DECENT COLD FRONT THOUGH NOT REMARKABLE IN AND OF ITSELF...A FAIRLY SOLID BAND OF MOISTURE AND LIFT SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ...RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE. GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY...SO SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES QUITE GUSTY. FRONT MOVES ON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH SHORT WAVE BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT...UPPER FLOW GOES BACK TO SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF STRONGER SHORT WAVE UPSTREAM. FRONT STALLS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH MONDAY...AND RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE THEN PULLS A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE MAY LONGER IN THE LOW LEVELS MONDAY IN THE WEAKENING FLOW THAT YIELDS TO A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH. ONGOING GRIDS HAVE THIS DEPICTED WELL THOUGH THE PARTIAL CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC. FWC APPEARED HIGH FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...WENT WITH BLEND OF THE OTHER NUMBERS WHICH JIVES WITH THE H85 DIFFERENTIAL IN SUNSHINE AND GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NUMBERS SEEMED A BIT LOW SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE GRADIENT BUT DID LOWER LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING WILL TAKE PLACE...STILL ENDED UP SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE NUMBERS AT EKN EVEN WITH A NICKEL DROP FROM THE PREVIOUS GRIDS THERE. HIGHS SUNDAY APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A BLEND OF THE NUMBERS DEPICT3ED. DID BACK OFF ON COOLING FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1245 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2005) AVIATION (06Z TO 06Z)... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE CONTROLLING FACTOR WEATHERWISE THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AROUND SHOULD SEE VERY FEW CLOUDS AND THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE COLD ADVECTION IS NEARLY COMPLETE AS THE THERMAL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA RIGHT NOW. THE 3500 TO 4000 FT UPSLOPE INDUCED CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR EKN. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL SOME HIGH CIRRUS ARRIVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 642 PM EST THU NOV 10 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATED THE CLOUDS...AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOWERING THEM BOTH. PKB ASOS IS NOW BACK UP AND TRANSMITTING HOURLY OBSERVATIONS. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 104 PM EST THU NOV 10 2005) LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... FIRST WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD HAVE OOZED EAST AND SOUTH BY 12Z MONDAY. LEFT MAINLY DRY THRU MONDAY NIGHT. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF NEXT FRONT IN QUESTION AT THIS DISTANCE FOR TUESDAY. GFS SOLUTION MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THEN ECMWF. I DID TRY TO GO COLDER THAN HPC GUIDANCE IN ITS WAKE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ESS LONG TERM...TRM