000 FXUS66 KPQR 301101 AFDPQR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR 300 AM PDT SUN OCT 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND MORNING FOG. SEVERAL WEEK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS NW OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG...WET WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH OREGON AS IT WEAKENS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL RE-ENERGIZE THE FRONT AND BRING MORE RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED AROUND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AIR AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM...WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE COAST THIS MORNING NOT WELL DEFINED IN MODELS. A FEW SHOWER SHOULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN THE NORTH BUT A DECREASING THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. AIR IS VERY MOIST AND THE STABLE AIR THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOG TO FORM WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS DUE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON MORNING. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM AND LIKE THAT FASTER SOLUTION. SOME HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR DOES GET ENTRAINED INTO THIS FRONT AS IT DEVELOPS SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN IN THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE STATE AND SW WASHINGTON. THE TIPPLE POINT MOVES SOUTH OVER PORTLAND AND THE FRONT WEAKENS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL WET SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A NICE SW FETCH OF MOIST AIR. TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. SCHNEIDER .LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN FOR LATER THIS WEEK. THE JET REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH A TROUGH DIGGING WED AND THURSDAY. I LIKE THE ECMWF FORECAST A LITTLE BETTER THEN THE GFS. TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON MONDAY FORECAST BUT WILL GO WITH THE GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW. SCHNEIDER && .MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS RETURN TO OUR NORTHERN WATERS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH GALES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM. && .AVIATION...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE UPCOMING 12 TAFS. OVERALL...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALONG THE COAST AND ALONG COLUMBIA RIVER. WHILE IFR CONDITIONS EXTEND FROM SOUTH SIDE OF PORTLAND SOUTHWARD TO ROSEBURG. CURRENT TIME FRAME FOR IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z LOOKS GOOD...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS. TAFCASTER...ROCKEY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT POPS AST 889+69 PDX 667966 SLE 654765 EUG 332434 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES OR/WA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD. GALE WARNING ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. && $$ MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT... http://weather.gov/portland THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.