000 FXUS64 KCRP 220904 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 404 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 .SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SURGE OF COOL DRY AIR IS PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA ATTM. AS THE CAA WEAKENS TDA AND DUE TO FULL SUNSHINE...TEMPS WL ONLY BE SVRL DEGS COOLER THAN YDA. VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT FLOW WL PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS TNT. LEANED TWDS THE COOLER ETA FOR TNT. ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WL REBOUND SVRL DEGS FROM SATS HIGHS DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER FNT. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...BIG FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF THE FALL SO FAR... AS WELL AS THE MUCH COOLER FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL FOLLOW. THE COLD IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE NAM...AND HAS THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA BY 06Z MON. FOR NOW HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO THE SPEED OF THE FRONT. STRONG CAA WILL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA MON MORNING AND POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS ON MON...LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN MANY AREAS. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO DURING THE MORNING...SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST. SHOULD SEE CLEARING OCCUR MON NIGHT AS VORT LOBE DIGS SOUTH THRU THE BASE OF THE UPR LVL TROF. TUE MORN SHOULD SEE TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST AND RIO GRANDE. TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE 70S TUE AFTN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DO PROG ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE BASE OF THE UPR LVL TROF OVR TX...ON THU AND FRI. MOISTURE ATTM APPEARS RATHER LIMITED...SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY. && .MARINE...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD THIS MORNING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO INCREASING NLY FLOW CAUSED BY THE SURGE OF DRY COOL AIR PUSHING THROUGH THE WATERS. BY THIS AFTN THE OFFSHORE FLOW WL BE BELOW SCA LVLS. HOWEVER...OFFSHORE SEAS WL STILL CONTINUE AT MARGINAL SCA LVLS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF APPROACHING SWELLS FROM WILMA AND LINGERING WEAK TO MODERATE WIND WAVES. THESE LARGE SWELLS WL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM PD GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF WILMA OVER THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL WATERS ON MON...WITH 20-25 KTS OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS AND 25-30 KTS OFFSHORE (HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 KTS OVER THE GULF WATERS). SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESS AXIS NOSES SOUTH INTO S TX. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 84 61 87 58 69 / 0 0 0 10 20 VICTORIA 82 57 84 52 68 / 0 0 0 10 20 LAREDO 87 64 90 61 67 / 0 0 0 10 20 ALICE 86 59 88 56 68 / 0 0 0 10 20 ROCKPORT 82 64 84 58 69 / 0 0 0 10 20 COTULLA 86 59 88 55 69 / 0 0 0 10 20 KINGSVILLE 85 60 88 58 68 / 0 0 0 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ MB/80...SHORT-TERM JR/76...LONG-TERM