000 
FXUS63 KABR 101052 CCA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
320 AM CDT MON OCT 10 2005

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN RESPECT TO THE MOVEMENT OF 
THE UPPER LOW THROUGH WED. GFS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND A LITTLE 
FASTER THAN NAM...AND GFS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN ITS LAST RUN. GFS 
NOW CONSIDERED THE OUTLIER AMONGST MODELS. THESE SMALL DIFFERENCES 
THOUGH DID NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIP FORECAST DURING THE 
PERIOD...WENT WITH A BLEND.

CUTOFF CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH WEAK 
700MB WAVE EJECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS DISTURBANCE IS 
GENERATING RAIN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND 
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO UNR CWA LATER THIS MORNING. KEPT 
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS 
MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST AND ACTUALLY WANE DURING THE DAY. DID 
NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE COMPLETELY REMOVING POPS THOUGH. STILL DO NOT 
EXPECT BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO ENTER CWA UNTIL LATE TUES AND DURING 
THE DAY WED. BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH DURING 
THIS TIME. TRACED THE 700MB WAVE THAT GFS LAYS ON TOP OF US TUES 
NIGHT BACKWARDS...AND THIS WAVE SHOULD BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE 
MAIN CUTOFF AND HEADING INTO NORTHERN TEXAS OVERNIGHT. FIDDLED WITH 
POPS A BIT...BUT NOTHING MAJOR. STILL HAVE NOTHING HIGHER THAN 50 
POPS FOR NOW AND HITTING CHANCES THE HARDEST TUES NIGHT AND WED. 
SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. 

CLOUD COVER WILL BE INTERESTING TODAY. CURRENTLY HAVE A 6000FT DECK 
ACROSS EASTERN SD THAT STOPS BETWEEN ABR AND ATY/8D3. CEILINGS BELOW 
1000FT OCCURRING OVER UNR CWA THIS MORNING. SOME LOWER CEILINGS 
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY 
SKIES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY WITH CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MID 
AND HIGH CLOUDS ALSO MOVING NORTH. ACROSS THE EAST...EXPECT CLOUDS 
TO ACTUALLY ADVANCE BACK TO THE WEST AND WE DRY ADVECT FROM THE 
EAST. GFS 800MB RH FIELDS PROVIDED AN EXCELLENT DEPICTION OF CURRENT 
SITUATION WITH SHARP RH GRADIENT ACROSS THE EAST. THIS GRADIENT 
MOVES BACK TO THE WEST TODAY BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE 
TO STREAM NORTH.

AT THE SURFACE...INVERTED TROUGH LINING UP ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND CAN 
BE EVIDENCED NICELY IN SFC OBS. RUC HANDLED THIS BEST THIS MORNING 
SO USED RUC WIND DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TROUGH SHOULD 
BECOME MORE ILL DEFINED BY THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH NUDGES SOUTH 
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. 

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BIGGEST CHALLENGE TO THE LONG TERM FCST REVOLVES AROUND PCPN CHCS 
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE NEARER TERM...DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM WILL STILL LEAVE A FEW 
LINGERING CLOUDS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED FCST. UPPER VENTILATION LOOKS 
TO BE A LITTLE BETTER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY WITH WAA KICKING 
IN BY 00Z FRIDAY. QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGES PASS THROUGH THE 
CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. 85H 
THERMAL RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH CWA DURING THIS TIME 
PERIOD...AND CURRENT TEMP FCST STILL HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...MODELS ARE STILL CONVERGING 
ON DIFFERING SOLNS. THE 00Z GFS NOW TAKES ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM 
SEEN 24 HOURS AGO AND RAPIDLY DIGS SYSTEM INTO 4 CORNERS 
REGION...WITH WEAKENING 5H AND 7H TROFS POSITIONED OVER CWA. THE 
09/18Z DGEX IS STILL PROGGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT REMAINS 
PROGRESSIVE WITH SOLN...MOVING IT QUICKLY THRU. THE 00Z CANADIAN 
KEEPS SYSTEM AS AN OPEN NRN STREAM WAVE...AND ALSO QUICKLY MOVES IT 
THROUGH. THE EC IS THE LEAST IMPRESSED WITH SYSTEM. FEELING IS THAT 
SOME SORT OF FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA FOR PART OF NEXT 
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING/LOCATION ARE IFFY AT BEST. WITH SO MUCH 
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS...AM GOING TO STICK WITH PERSISTENT DRY 
FCST AND LET MODELS SETTLE DOWN A BIT BEFORE INSERTING PCPN.  

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE. 
MN...NONE. 
&&

$$

TT/DH