000 FXUS66 KLOX 271041 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 330 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2005 .SHORT TERM... MARINE LAYER HAS MIXED OUT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NOW FORMING IN PLACE OVER AREAS MOISTENED BY THE RAIN WITH ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SATURATE THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONLY PATCHY CLOUDS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION BUT NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION CLOUDS ARE PRETTY ABUNDANT. CLOUDS ALSO FORMED IN PLACE IN THE SALINAS VLY AND INCLUDED THOSE. TEMPS WILL WARM EVERYWHERE TODAY BUT NOT SO MUCH OVER L.A. COUNTY WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND OFFSHORE FLOW ALLOWED FOR A DECENT WARM UP MONDAY. DECIDED TO JUMP ON MDL TREND OF GREAT BASIN HIGH AND OFFSHORE FLOW. REMOVED LOW CLOUDS AND ONLY LEFT IN SOME PATCHY FOG WHICH WILL OCCUR OVER THE WETTER AREAS. TEMPS WILL WARM UP. TEMPS MIGHT BE TOO LOW BUT HARD TO SAY HOW STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE. SOME LOCAL CANYON WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN DEPENDING ON HOW OFFSHORE THINGS GET. OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THU AND FRI. STRENGTH OF OFFSHORE DOES NOT LOOK TOO STRONG. PROBABLY A LITTLE FOG OVERNIGHTS IN THE SHELTERED AREAS. TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY ALTHOUGH CONFINDENCE IS RATHER LOW AS WEAK SANTA ANA DAYS CAN BE VERY TRICKY TO NAIL DOWN EXACT TEMPS. .LONG TERM... A PLEASENT BUT BENIGN WEATHER REGIME SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED. OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WHEN A WEAK TROF SHUFFLES THROUGH THE AREA (IF GFS IS SPOT ON) LOOK FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL MAX TEMPS WITH NO MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION... SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... WITH THE MARINE LAYER MIXING OUT DUE TO EARLIER SYSTEM THAT MOVED OVER THE AREA YESTERDAY...DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS TO FORM OVER THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE OXNARD PLAIN DUE TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL THAT FELL EARLIER YESTERDAY AND CALM WINDS. PATCHY RADIATION FOG WILL AFFECT THE AGRICULTURAL AREAS WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BEGIN TO REORGANIZE THIS MORNING AND LOCAL DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF LA/VTU COUNTIES...BUT HAVE VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. VSBYS WILL BE MVFR FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR CONDS BY LATE MORNING. VALLEYS SHOULD HAVE NO RESTRICTIONS TODAY. NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... 00Z VGB SOUNDING INDICATED AN INVERSION NEAR 1200 FT DP. LOW CLOUDS WERE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE SALINAS VALLEY. CIGS ARE VARIED FROM 008 AT KPRB TO BETWEEN 006-011 FOR KSMX AND KSBP RESPECTIVELY. MVFR VSBYS COULD LOWER TO LOCAL IFR CONDS FOR KSMX BY 12Z...WITH BURNOFF BY 17Z JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. $$ .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...RORKE AVIATION...KAPLAN