000 FXUS61 KRLX 311916 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 315 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... CLOUDS CONT TRANSFORMATION INTO OPEN CELLULAR STRUCTURE ALONG AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. -RA/DZ PERSISTS IN THE MTNS UNDER OVC CONDS. DONT FORESEE CLEARING LINE MAKING IT TO THE MTNS BY SUN-DOWN AS UPSLOPE WINDS KEEP MSTR/QPF SOCKED IN. IN FACT...WITH NW FLOW (FAIRLY DEEP APPROX. 8KFT)...OPTED TO ROLL WITH OVC ALL NIGHT ALONG WITH CARRYING -DZ FM EKN-BKW. FARTHER W...LOOKING FOR FG TO DEVELOP ACR LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE A HEALTHY DOES OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON (SERN OH/NERN KY/WRN WV). THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AFTN DWPTS COMPARED WITH FCST MINT TNGT. WHAT WILL BE TRICKY IS IF NAM SLTN EVOLVES...WHICH IS MID CLDS TRAVERSING SRN 1/2 OF FA AFT MDNGT PER H7 VORT. ROLLED WITH MINS CLOSER TO THE MET OVRNGT GVN ERLY ONSET OF FG (ARND 7-9Z) AND ELECTION TO FOLLOW NAM AND AFOREMENTIONED A/C THAT WL KEEP MINS UP. VORT MAX STILL COMING THRU THU MORNING. HARD TO PICTURE HOW CLOUDS WILL PLAY OUT EACH HOUR THU MORNING...BUT FIGURED CLOUDS WILL EVAPORATE AFTER 15Z. WEAK FRONTAL ZONE...AND A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE PASSES THRU OVERNIGHT THU NGT. STILL SEE NO REASON FOR POPS AOA 20 PCT. STAYED DRY. EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS SHOULD FILTER OUR WAY DURING THE 12Z FRI TO 00Z SAT PERIOD. HARD TO TELL IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK FRONTAL ZONE TO HINDER RIVER VALLEY FOG FOR DAWN SATURDAY. DID INSERT SOME FOG ALONG THE MOST COMMON RIVERS. CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ON SATURDAY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 117 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2005) AVIATION (18Z TO 18Z)... DRY AIR CONTS TO MV EWRD WITH BREAKS IN THE OVC ALMOST TO HTS ATT. ELSEWHERE...STRATUS CONTS TO HOLD AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MTN STATE. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN...EXPECT WRN TAF SITES TO BREAK OUT IN SUNSHINE AND CLEARING TO OCCUR LATE AT CKB AND CRW. NW WINDS WL KEEP -RA/DZ IN THE MTNS. WITH LOTS OF LLVL MSTR AIRPORTS THAT CLEAR WILL BE PRIMED FOR FOG FORMATION TNGT...THUS LOWERED PKB AND CKB TO IFR/MVFR RESPECTIVELY. NAM HINTS AT A NARROW SWATH OF 300K UPGLIDE WHICH IS GENERATING MID CLDS ACR HTS AND CRW...WHICH SHOULD NEGATE FG FORMATION. EKN AND BKW UNDER UPSLOPE FLOW WL CONT TO SEE IFR CLOUDS OVRNGT. ANY FOG OR STRATUS WL ERODE BY MID MRNG OWING TO VFR CONDS AS WAA ENSUES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1246 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2005) LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... STAYED WITH THE TREND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN MOST COUNTIES THAN GUIDANCE. WEAK E/SE FLOW MAY LIMIT WARMUP OVER MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FM HPC. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 948 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... WHAT IS LEFT OVER FROM KATRINA IS MOVING THRU NWRN PA AND SWRN NY WITH ATTENUATING COLD FRONT CROSSING ERN OH ATT. -RA/-DZ CONTS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE MRNG FOR WITH A GRADUAL END FM W TO E. WSETA AND WRF SHOW HIGHER QPF AMTNS THIS AFTN AS WINDS BACK TO NW AND UPSLOPE COMMENCES IN THE MTNS. INC POPS TO CAT OVER THE N AND THE MNTS LT THIS MRNG THRU THE AFTN FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REASON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE LLVL MSTR LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTN E OF THE OH RVR...WITH SOME SUNSHINE W OF THE OH RVR AND THE TUG BASIN. WITH A CANOPY OF STRATUS...LOWERED TEMPS FOR ALL SITES AND WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MTNS CONT TO FALL WITH LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY AFT 19Z. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...29/KTB