000 FXUS61 KRLX 292303 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 705 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005 .AVIATION... FOG ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING A LITTLE LATER THAN LAST NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD GET TO IFR...WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LIFR ANTICIPATED JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WINDS SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...LESS THAN 10KTS...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS AND BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY POSITIONED EVEN FURTHER TO OUR EAST. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... FORECAST AREA STILL RIDING ON THE FENCE BETWEEN THE MUCH DRIER AIR AND THE SUMMER MUGGIES TO THE E/SE. A SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVG NE THRU SW VA...LEAVING HIGHEST POPS EARLY THIS EVENING IN GREENBRIER VLY/POCAHONTAS CO. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION. WEAK NE FLOW AT 2/3 THSD IS TRYING TO BRING THE DRIER AIR MASS INTO HTS AND ERN KY CURRENTLY. HAVE FOG FORMING AFTER 04Z...MOST WIDESPREAD CNTRL WV INTO SRN COAL FIELDS INCLUDING CRW. NO OTHER BIG CHANGES. AREAS OF FG WL BURN OFF BY MID MRNG YIELDING TO A MCLR SKY TMRW XCPT FOR THE MTNS WHERE LOW LEVEL EQUIV POT TEMP REMAIN HIGH ALONG WITH DECENT INSTABILITY...CONTINUED WITH LOW POPS THERE AND DRY ELSW. ANY RW ACTIVITY TMRW WL DISSIPATE AFT DUSK AND FG FORMATION IS PSBL IN THE MTNS GIVEN CELLULAR TYPE CLOUD STRUCTURE ANTICIPATED SAT. SAME WX STORY PERSISTS SUNDAY WITH BEST CHC OF QPF IN THE MTNS WITH WK UPSLOPE AND INVERTED H8 TROF. MONDAY FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. H8 TEMPS CONT TO WARM AS THEY PUSH 20C IN THE OH RVR VLY. THIS SPELLS A RETURN TO 90F DEGREE TEMPS IN THE WRN ZNS WITH LOWER 80S IN THE EAST. MODEST INSTABILITY IS PEGGED...HOWEVER A LOT OF DRY AIR AT MID AND HIGH LVLS SHOULD NEGATED AFTN/EVNG TSTM POT. OPTED TO LEAVE THINGS DRY ATT AND REEXAMINE ON LATER SHIFTS. MAX/MINT CONT TO BE UNDERPLAYED BY THE MAV...ESPECIALLY OVER PKB- HTS...THEREFORE UP THEM A CAT DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005) AVIATION... STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT ALONG WESTERN SLOPES NR CKB-CRW LINE AT 17Z. WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVG SLOWLY NE ENHANCING PCPN ALONG WRN NC INITO SW VA. STILL THINK SLOW MOVING SHWRS/TSTORMS COULD FORMING OVER WV MTNS BKW-EKN VCNTY 18-00Z...BUT COVERAGE GREATER FURTHER E/SE ALONG EASTERN SLOPES. FOG MAY BE A HOUR OR 2 LATER IN FORMING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ON WRN EDGE OF HIGHER DEW POINGTS...SAY CKB-CRW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1158 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005) LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... MID LVL ANTICYCLONE HIGHLIGHTS XTNDD FCST WITH H5 HGTS HANGING AROUND 588DM DAYS 4 -7. GFS PRINTS OUT QPF THUR ALONG THE OH RVR...BUT HARD TO FIND A TRIGGER AND EVEN THEN STRENGTH OF H7 CAP SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY. ROLLED WITH DRY WX TUES THROUGH FRI WHILE CONTINUING THE TREND OF RUNNING MAX/MINT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE MEX. LOWER 90S RETURN TO THE OH RVR COMMUNITIES NEXT WEEK WITH 20C AT H8 AND LTL IN THE WAY OF CLD CVR. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...KF/CL