000 FXUS65 KBOI 291606 CCA AFDBOI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID 945 AM MDT FRI JUL 29 2005 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS AND PRODUCTS SENT FOR TWO MAIN AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THROUGH EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE BLUES AND DRIFT INTO N HARNEY/BAKER COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE COMING INTO OREGON AND NEAR 50-70KTS UPPER JET KRDM-KOTX THIS MORNING TO OVER MT THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR/LIGHTNING DETECTION AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN A LINE FROM NORTH OF WEISER IDAHO TO NEAR CROWLEY THEN TO SOUTH OF ANDREWS OREGON WHICH HAD KICKED OFF 8-12 STRIKES/15 MINUTES SINCE 9 AM. MODIFIED GOES SOUNDING FOR SE OREGON KEEPS LIS DOWN TO AROUND -3 WHILE ETA PWS ARE AROUND A HALF INCH SO WILL KEEP ISOLATED TS IN FORECAST THROUGH EVENING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED ACROSS S CENTRAL IDAHO WHERE PWS WERE AROUND 1 INCH AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE OVER DEWPOINTS NEAR 50F. KEPT 20-30 POPS THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. UPDATED DIURNAL TRENDS FOR VERY MILD NIGHT AS CLOUDINESS EXTENDED OVER MOST OF SW IDAHO...WITH MAMMATUS OBSERVED AT WFO BOISE 7-8 AM. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. TODAY THERE WILL BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL CANCEL THE RFW FOR THIS MORNING BECAUSE THE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT NO MORE LIGHTNING IS BEING REPORTED. OTHERWISE...FEEL THUNDERSTORMS MAY START BRIEFLY AS MOSTLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEN TRANSITION QUICKLY INTO WET STORMS. MOISTURE IS DEEPENING AND FEEL THAT STORMS TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY WET AS OPPOSED TO YDAYS MOSTLY DRY STORMS. THEREFORE WILL NOT REISSUE AN RFW FOR DRY STORMS AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION GETTING TO BE A COMMON OCCURRENCE AROUND HERE...WITH TONIGHTS ACTIVITY MOSTLY IN OUR SE SECTION. LIGHTNING APPEARS TO HAVE CEASED AND WILL CANCEL THE RFW AS MENTIONED ABOVE. MAIN THRUST OF PACKAGE CHANGED VERY LITTLE...BUT DID INCREASE POPS ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE GETS DEEPER AND MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR MORE THAN JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THUNDER SUNDAY. NAM NOTICEABLY WARMER WITH 700-850 THICKNESS PROGS THROUGH SUNDAY... SO WENT ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE MOST LOCATIONS MOST PERIODS. THE FINAL ANSWER WILL ALL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF CONVECTION...WHICH IS NOTHING NEW. LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS TAKEN PLACE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COMING WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MODIFIED MONSOON MOISTURE OVER OUR ZONES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES OVER WESTERN CANADA KEEPING MOST OF ITS ENERGY NORTH OF THE BORDER. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. THEN ON WEDNESDAY ONLY OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ARE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS A TRANSITION TO A DRIER PATTERN WITH WARMING ALOFT BEGINS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH INCREASING POSITIVE DEPARTURE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK UNDER THE STRONGLY REBUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .ID...NONE .OR...NONE && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BOISE DISCUSSION...VM AVIATION...JA PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...SP LONG TERM...JT