000 
FXUS62 KILM 291341
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
940 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
OVERNIGHT STORMS WORKED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN 
CAPPED MID LEVELS AS SEEN IN 12Z MHX SOUNDING. RECENT VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD COVER STARTING TO THIN WHICH WILL 
RESULT IN RAPID TEMPERATURE INCREASES. DIURNAL HEATING AND STALLED 
FRONT IN THE REGION WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS 
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. CURRENT 50 POPS 
STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK AS DO FORECAST HIGHS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE 
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS 
STILL EXISTS.  

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING 
AND FRONT CROSSING THE COAST NEAR MYRTLE BEACH. STRONGEST CONVECTION 
THIS MORNING CONTINUES OVER THE COAST WATERS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY 
FROM JUST OFFSHORE GEORGETOWN TO 55 NM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. RUC 
CONTINUES TO SHOW BOUNDARY LIFTING FARTHER NORTH TODAY. SO WILL 
INITIALIZE WINDS TO CURRENT CONDITIONS WITH WINDS TRENDING TO THE 
SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ON SEAS THE DISTANT BUOYS OF 41004 AND 41002 ARE SHOWING 2.5 AND 3.5 
FT RESPECTIVELY BUT NEITHER ARE NEAR ONGOING CONVECTION.  
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH OCEAN RESCUE WAS REPORTING 2 TO 3 FT BREAKERS AT 
THE OUTER BAR.  WITH MORNING CONVECTION AND ONGOING CONVECTION WILL 
CONTINUE TO MENTION WIND AND WAVES HIGHER NEAR TSTMS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 
FT NEAR SHORE SHOULD WORK AND I WILL RAISE SEAS TO 3 TO 4 AT 20 
MILES OFF THE COAST DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CONVECTION.  

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED TO NEAR MYRTLE BEACH THIS MORNING. 
THINGS HAVE REALLY STABILIZED WITH ALL THE HIGH CAPES OFFSHORE. WILL 
TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z FOR ATMOSPHERE TO RELOAD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
REFIRE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WINDS 
WILL BE VARIABLE WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON 
AND VARIABLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE. 
SC...NONE. 
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

MARINE...HAWKINS
AVIATION...HDL