000 
FXUS65 KPSR 241036
AFDPSR
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-241800-

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
335 AM MST SUN JUL 24 2005

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA 
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIR WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON MONDAY REACHING THE 
FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO 
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST 
ARIZONA BY EARLY IN THE WEEK...BUT WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INVERTED TROF FROM BAJA INTO SOUTHERN CA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 
SLOWLY OFF THE COAST TODAY/TONIGHT AS AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST OVER 
ENTIRE REGION. THUS OUR REGION WILL BE SLOWLY LOSING DYNAMICS AS THE 
TROF MOVES AWAY SO TODAYS THUNDERSTORM DEVELPMENT WILL BEGIN TO RELY 
A BIT MORE ON AFTERNOON HEATING AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARYS. PLUS FORECAST 
SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY SHOWS GOOD CAPE AND WITH AIRMASS STILL VERY 
MOIST WITH P-WATER AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES TODAY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS 
WITH SOME STORMS STILL GOOD POSSIBILITY. BY MON AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR 
THE CA COAST BEGINS BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND AND ACROSS AZ REACHING THE 
4 CORNERS AREA BY THURS THEN STAYING OVER NORTHERN NM INTO THE 
WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER HIGH MIGRATES ACROSS AZ MID/UPPER FLOW WHICH 
HAVE BEEN E-SE BECOME WESTERLY AND BEGINS TO DRY THOSE LEVELS... 
SPREADING SOME DRIER AIR W-E ACROSS OUR REGION. AIRMASS BY MON WILL 
NOT BE AS UNSTABLE AS TODAY AND WILL HAVE A LITTLE LESS CAPE. THIS 
WILL GRADUALLY END THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER SE CA SW AZ 
BEGINNING TUES AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE 
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...ALTHOUGH THE 
PROBABILITIES WILL BE A BIT LESS IN THE DESERTS TUES THROUGH THE 
LATER PART OF THE WEEK. BUT BY THURS/FRI AS THE UPPER HIGH SITUATES 
ITSELF IN THE 4 CORNERS/ NORTHERN NM AREA...THAT W FLOW BECOMES E-SE 
ONCE AGAIN AND BEGINS TO SPREAD MOISTURE FROM MEXICO BACK INTO SOUTH 
CENTRAL AZ. THIS MAY BRING A BIT MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL AZ GOING BY NEXT WEEKEND...AND  
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER SW AZ SE CA. 

&&

.AVIATION...
DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS. FOR TAF KPHX AND KIWA...GUSTY WINDS TO 
35-40KTS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS FORMING EAST AND SOUTH OF 
KPHX/KIWA AFTER 22Z. IMPACTS TO CIGS/VIS CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 00Z 
AND 07Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO BKN070CB AND POSSIBLE REDUCTION IN VIS 
TO 3SM IN TSRA AND SOME BLDU.

TAFS FOR KYUM...KBLH AND KIPL ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT 
WEATHER. 

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

$$

DKS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX