000 FXUS65 KTFX 232034 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 234 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2005 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE YELLOWSTONE PARK VICINITY WHERE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL AND SW MT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IN WESTERN CANADA WILL REACH NW MT BY LATE SUNDAY WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY FOR MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH ALSO SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MT MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOENISCH TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START OFF THE PERIOD AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE REGION MILD. FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTERLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. BY FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCARCE NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THE ONLY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA. MEIER AVIATION... UPDATED AT 1735Z. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BEGIN DECREASING AROUND SUNSET. OTHER THAN A FEW SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 50 86 51 74 / 0 0 20 20 CTB 49 76 47 70 / 0 10 20 20 HLN 54 89 54 77 / 0 10 20 20 BZN 48 88 49 78 / 0 10 20 20 WEY 43 84 45 78 / 20 20 20 30 DLN 50 87 51 77 / 0 10 20 10 HVR 55 85 52 76 / 0 0 20 20 LWT 52 84 52 71 / 0 0 30 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM SATURDAY FOR MTZ009-MTZ010-MTZ011- MTZ012-MTZ013-MTZ014-MTZ044-MTZ045-MTZ046-MTZ047-MTZ048-MTZ049- MTZ050-MTZ051-MTZ054. && $$ SHORT TERM...HOENISCH LONG TERM....MPJ AVIATION...LOSS WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS