000 FXUS65 KTFX 230835 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 235 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2005 .DISCUSSION... TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS ARE FURTHER FLATTENED TODAY AS A JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING DOWNSLOPE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO MIX DOWN FROM THE MID LEVELS. IN ADDITION...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND RH VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR FIRE ZONES 112 THROUGH 115 AND 117 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER MY CWA. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY FOR A WELCOME RESPITE TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN CANADA AND SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL MONTANA FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND UPSLOPE FLOW. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE SO HAVE INTRODUCES 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MPJ MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START OFF THE PERIOD AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE REGION MILD. FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTERLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. BY FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCARCE NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THE ONLY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA. MEIER && .AVIATION... UPDATED AT 0510Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY AFTER 12Z AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA AT 05Z MOVES EAST ALONG MONTANA/CANADA BORDER AND FLATTENS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 08Z. SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM BETWEEN KCTB AND KHVR SOUTHWEST TO KDLN AT 05Z TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA...EXITING THE AREA AFTER 12Z. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE AREA...WITH ISOLD MVFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH STRONGER STORMS THROUGH 09Z. COULSTON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 90 53 85 51 / 0 0 10 20 CTB 84 51 76 47 / 0 0 10 20 HLN 90 57 88 55 / 0 0 10 10 BZN 90 48 87 49 / 0 0 10 20 WEY 85 41 86 45 / 20 20 20 20 DLN 88 49 85 51 / 0 0 10 10 HVR 91 53 85 52 / 0 0 10 20 LWT 85 52 82 52 / 0 0 20 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 PM SATURDAY FOR MTZ009- MTZ010-MTZ011-MTZ012-MTZ013-MTZ014-MTZ044-MTZ045-MTZ046-MTZ047- MTZ048-MTZ049-MTZ050-MTZ051-MTZ054. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPJ LONG TERM....MEIER AVIATION...COULSTON WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS