000 
FXUS63 KFSD 230726
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
226 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION GOING FAIRLY STRONG OVER WESTERN HIGH PLAINS NEAR UPPER 
LEVEL WAVE EARLY THIS MORNING. NO ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA SO 
FAR...AND THIS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE DAY. EXTREMELY WARM MID 
LEVELS AND A LLJ THAT IS WEAKER THAN PROGGED HAVE KEPT CONVECTION 
FROM GOING ALONG INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION. STILL SOME OUTSIDE 
SHOT THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD FIRE OVER SOUTHWEST MN AS CAP A 
LITTLE WEAKER IN THIS AREA.

OTHERWISE...WILL EXTEND HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS ENTIRE CWA TODAY AS 
STRONG MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SETTLES IN. WEAK FRONT EVEN SLOWER 
THAN PROGGED FROM YESTERDAY...SO WESTERN CWA LIKELY TO HEAT OUT 
CLOSE TO 110 IN SOME LOCALS. WILL UP HIGHS FROM THE JAMES VALLEY 
WEST AND LEAVE THE EAST MOSTLY UNTOUCHED. DEW POINTS WILL BE THE KEY 
TODAY...AND EXPECT THEM TO DROP OFF FAIRLY NICELY THIS AFTERNOON AS 
THE SFC WIND SWINGS AROUND TO THE SW WITH INCREASED MIXING. THIS 
WILL PROBABLY AID IN MAKING TODAY FEEL LESS OPPRESSIVE THAN 
YESTERDAY...WHERE WINDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS OF 
75 TO 80 MADE FOR A NASTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT AFTERNOON 
DEW POINTS TO DROP INTO THE 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND EVEN A FEW 
50S OVER THE FAR WEST.

FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WILL CARRY A SMALL POP 
FOR THIS. MID LEVEL CAPPING VERY STRONG AGAIN AND FORCING NOT ALL 
THAT IMPRESSIVE. IF SOMETHING CAN DEVELOP...WIND THREAT AGAIN VERY 
HIGH AND ALMOST ANYTHING THAT DOES GO WILL KICK OUT SOME STRONG 
WINDS.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS BACK UP AGAIN...WITH HIGHS FROM ABOUT 
THE MID 80S IN SW MN TO THE MID 90S NEAR MO RIVER. 

CAP CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKING LIKE STRONGEST FROPA SHOULD BE ON 
MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR. WOULD SUSPECT EITHER 
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY WILL BRING SOME DECENT RAINS TO MANY 
LOCATIONS AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASE. MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS 
TOSSING OUT 60-70 POPS AS WELL...SO WILL NEED TO INCREASE TO 
ACCOMMODATE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HEAT ADVISORY ALL ZONES NOON TO 8 PM TODAY. 
MN...HEAT ADVISORY ALL ZONES NOON TO 8 PM TODAY. 
IA...HEAT ADVISORY ALL ZONES NOON TO 8 PM TODAY. 
NE...HEAT ADVISORY ALL ZONES NOON TO 8 PM TODAY.

&&

$$

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