000 FXUS65 KPSR 201336 AFDPSR AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-201800- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 400 AM MST WED JUL 20 2005 SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS... THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SPREADING OVER OUR ENTIRE BY THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND COLORADO KEEPS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE EMILY OVER MEXICO WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO OUR REGION BY FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. A MOIST AIRMASS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NE AZ WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY INTO CO BY THURS. THIS WILL KEEP AN E-SE FLOW OVER OUR REGION AND KEEPING OUR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. PLUS...A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NEAR AZ BORDER AT THIS TIME MAY SEND ADDITION MOIST OUTFLOWS UP INTO OUR AREA WHICH MAY HELP IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT MAINLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THEN BY THURS AS THE E-SE FLOW CONTINUES ...SOME MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE EMILY MOVING THROUGH NE MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FILTERING TOWARD OUR REGION...WITH MORE MOISTURE BY FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR PHX SHOWS PRETTY WELL SATURATE ABOVE 600 MB. ALSO BY SAT THE REMAINS OF EMILYS CENTER BY THAT TIME OVER WESTERN MEXICO DEVELOPS AN INVERTED TROF WHICH EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN AZ. THIS SHOULD ALL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER OUR ENTIRE AREA FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SATURATE AIRMASS WILL ALSO CAUSE SOME OF THE STORMS TO HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THE BURN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHX. THERE IS ALSO TROPICAL STORM EUGENE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. WITH THE E-W RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. EUGENE IS FORECASTED TO TRACK WNW AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. OUR REGION MAY GET LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE FROM EUGENE. OUR MAIN MOISTURE INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK WILL COME FROM EMILY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER AZ BUT THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION BUT THE CHANCES OF THE THUNDESTORMS WILL BE LESS OVER SE CA. AS FOR TEMPS...THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE TEMPS DURING THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INT THE WEEKEND. FOR PHX...TUES AVERAGE DEW POINT WAS 57 WHICH IS THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW WITH AVERAGE DEW POINT AT OR ABOVE 55. TODAY COULD BE THE THIRD DAY TO DECLARE THE MONSOON ONSET. && .AVIATION... DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR KYUM AND KIPL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY SOME MID AND HI LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES. BY AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS BY EVENING. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KPHX/KIWA IS ABOUT 30 PERCENT. THERE IS A SMALLER CHANCE OF STORM ACTIVITY AFFECTING KBLH...KYUM AND KIPL BUT NOT A ZERO CHANCE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. $$ DKS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX