000 
FXUS61 KCAR 150229
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1030 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AT 2
PM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...WITH THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING OFF 
THE DOWNEAST COAST...HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS AND ADD 
AREAS OF FOG WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO   
CHANGES MADE BEYOND THE FIRST PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS THE
PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS.  PRECIPITATION WILL END LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.  USED A BLEND OF
THE NAM AND GFS MODELS AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS.  A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL PUSH MORE
CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF VISIBILITY AOB 1 MILE AND CEILINGS AOB 1
THOUSAND FEET ASSOCIATED WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
THROUGH 00Z.  00Z TO 03Z VISIBILITY AROUND 5 MILES AND CEILINGS
AROUND 3 THOUSAND FEET WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG.
AFTER 03Z WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY AROUND 2 NM AND CEILINGS BELOW 1
THOUSAND FEET WITH AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.MARINE...IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 4 FEET MAINLY IN SOUTH SWELLS.  SWELLS
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY.  NO FLAGS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

FITZSIMMONS