000 
FXUS63 KLBF 062033 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...
    FOR TONIGHT, A VOLATILE SITUATION IS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN 
NEBRASKA WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA 
AND THE DRY LINE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. MODIFYING 
THE 18Z LBF SOUNDING FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 86F AND DEWPOINT 64F 
GIVES CAPE OF 4990J/KG. ALL INDICATIONS POINT TO AT LEAST A FEW 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE BIG 
QUESTION IS...HOW FAR EAST WILL IT GO? AT THIS TIME, WE ARE THINKING 
THAT IT WILL INITIATE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND GOING AT LEAST AS 
FAR EAST AS VALENTINE, THEDFORD, STAPLETON AND NORTH PLATTE.

    LOOKING ON INTO THE FUTURE, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED  
OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE TUESDAY EVENING.

    ACTIVE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE 
FORECAST.     
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
    AT 18Z...HAND ANALYSIS OF THE MSL DATA SHOWED THE DRY LINE IN 
COLORADO AND WYOMING EAST OF CHEYENNE, AKRON, LAMAR. THERE WAS ALSO 
A CONVERGENCE LINE THROUGH SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DERIVED PRODUCT 
IMAGERY SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 20MM OR HIGHER ALONG AND EAST 
OF A MERRIMAN-OGALLALA-IMPERIAL LINE AND LIFTED INDICES AT OR BELOW 
-8C. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, 6.7U IMAGERY INDICATED A BAROCLINIC ZONE 
IN WESTERN WYOMING ROTATING ABOUT A MATURE CYCLONE CENTERED OVER 
CENTRAL OREGON.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 04Z
NEZ004-005-022>025-035>037-056>059-069>071
&&

$$
SPRINGER