000 
FXUS63 KFGF 192226
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
525 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 

...WILL UPDATE TO ADD THUNDER FOR TONIGHT IN ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST...

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR MOVING INTO WESTERN ND ALONG WITH 
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS HELPING THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN ND. 
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT AS DEEP LAYERED SHEAR 
PROFILES INCREASE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE. WILL ADD SCATTERED 
THUNDER TO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 01Z THEN MOVE CONVECTION EAST 
THEREAFTER. BEST UPPER SUPPORT IS ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO NW MN 
TONIGHT...SO WILL MENTION CHANCE FOR THUNDER HERE AND ISOLATED IN 
SOUTHEAST ND. 


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
-------------------------------------------------------------------
.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO DISSIPATE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN 
ND AND NORTHWEST MN BUT THE SUN WILL LIKELY RUN OUT OF TIME TO 
FINISH THE JOB THIS EVENING. AREAS EAST OF RED RIVER MIGHT STAY 
CLOUDY AND WOULDN/T RULE OUT SOME FOG AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF 
PATCHY IN ZONES AS IT IS. SHORT TIME TO EVALUATE MODELS THIS 
AFTERNOON SO DECIDED TO BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE OVER CHANGES
TO THIS PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE CORRELATES
WITH STRONG UPPER JET DIVERGENCE FRI NIGHT FOR MODELS TO SHOW HIGH 
RAINFALL TOTALS. AS IT DID YESTERDAY...18Z NAM BACKED OFF (HALF
AS MUCH) FROM ITS 12-HR 2.5 INCH BULLSEYE OVER HCO 12Z SAT. 12Z 
NGM/GFS/MM5 SHOWED SIMILAR QPF SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN ND (THE LATTER 
TWO CENTERED OVER JMS) WHILE UKMET/CANADIAN WERE SOMEWHAT MORE 
CONSERVATIVE. THE 18Z NAM DIVERGENCE COUPLET IS WEAKER AND ITS 
SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH. THINK HEAVY RAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA
IS A PRETTY GOOD BET. 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS UNDER 2 INCHES 
SOME COUNTIES ACROSS THE NORTH VALLEY THOUGH CLOSER TO 3 FARTHER 
SOUTH. WILL LEAVE IT TO EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH FOR 
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND AND RESULTANT STREAMFLOW RISES 
ESPECIALLY SINCE SURROUNDING OFFICES AREN/T SO BULLISH.

SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE FRI ALSO THOUGH WONDER IF WE CAN 
WARM QUITE ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET 
DECOUPLES AND STORMS BECOME ELEVATED. SOME SEVERE SEEM A PRETTY GOOD 
BET TOO THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF ON THOSE TERMS AT LEAST FOR THIS 
PACKAGE.
 
&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE. 

&&

$$
GV