000 
FXUS63 KFSD 131509
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD    
1010 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. FIRST FRNTL BNDRY 
PULLING NEWD OUT OF CWA AT 15Z. FIRST PD TEMPS...WX AND WINDS LOOK 
ON TRACK THRU THIS AFTN. NEXT CDFNT TO DROP INTO AREA OVRNGT. WL SEE 
MOSTLY CLDY SKIES THRU THIS AFTN AND TNGT...AND MAY NEED TO GO A LTL 
MORE PESSIMISTIC IN GRIDS FOR CLD CVR. REINFORCING CAA TO KICK IN 
BEHIND FNT TNGT...BUT WITH STRONGER WNDS BEHIND FNT...DO NOT EXPECT 
LOWS TO GET TOO COLD TNGT AS AMS STAYS WELL MIXED IN LOWER LVLS...SO 
MID 30S TO LWR 40S GOING LOOK GOOD.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PULLING OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY 
THIS MORNING...WITH BAND OF MID LEVEL SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SW SD 
INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD. EXITING CONVECTION OVER NW IA ALONG INVERTED 
TROF EXTENDING NORTH FROM KS. AND INBETWEEN...PATCHY DRIZZLE. 

TROP HEIGHTS AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOW LATEST PRECIPITATION OVER 
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS FAIRLY WELL...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT AREAS FROM 
AROUND HURON TO BROOKINGS COULD SEE SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS 
MORNING. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH 
AND EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THIS PRECIPITATION 
PULLS EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF MAJOR COLD FRONT COMING 
DOWN TONIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY POTENT WAVE. DESTABILIZATION ABOVE 
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF WAVE SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO 
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN CWA. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO COVER 
THIS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY A LOT OF CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...A COLD AND WINDY 
DAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE QUIET AND TEMPERATURES 
WILL FINALLY START TO REBOUND. WILL BUMP HIGHS UP A BIT MONDAY AND 
TUESDAY.

HOWEVER...SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS...NO CLOUDS AND DRY 
AIR...MAY SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 
FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE WEST OF 
INTERSTATE 29.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

MG