000 
FXUS64 KCRP 220151
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
850 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

.UPDATE...SHORTWAVE EVIDENT IN WV LOOP HELPING TO SUSTAIN SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS EVENING AND IS CREATING 
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND COASTAL PLAINS 
AND COASTAL BEND.  EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF 
THE NIGHT UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH 
QPF WITH THESE SHOWERS BUT CAP IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THIS EVENING 
AS DYNAMICAL LIFTING HAS COOLED THE LAYER FROM H7 TO H85.  WILL ONLY 
MENTION THUNDER IN THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP 
SHOWERS IN THE ZONES FOR THE EAST.  TEMP/SKY FORECAST REMAINS ON 
TRACK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.  FOG POTENTIAL 
REMAINS QUITE TRICKY TONIGHT.  EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE 
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE UNDER 10 KNOTS.  RADIATIONAL 
COOLING WILL BE INHIBITED SOMEWHAT DUE TO EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER 
ACROSS THE AREA AND LOCAL OBS ARE SHOWING STRATUS ALREADY SETTING 
IN.  HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL NOT REQUIRE AS MUCH COOLING HOWEVER. WILL 
CHANGE AREAS OF FOG TO PATCHY FOR NOW AND RESTRICT THIS TO THE 
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.MARINE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PROBLEMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS 
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.  WEAKER GRADIENT WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS BELOW 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH EXPECT 
WINDS TO REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SCA CONDITIONS 
ARE STILL EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION BEHIND COLD FRONT 
MOVES OVER THE GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAKENING PGRAD AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET THAN 
PREVIOUS DAYS WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. GIVEN THIS 
AND CONTINUED VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT EARLIER STRATUS 
FORMATION TONIGHT (BEGINNING IN NEXT FEW HOURS) WITH A GREATER 
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER STRATUS (LESS THAN 500 FT) AND FOG FORMATION 
LOWERING VSBYS TO LESS THAN 1 SM FOR INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AREAS FOR 
2 TO 3 HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. CU SHOULD SCT OUT A LITTLE FASTER FRI 
DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY NORTH OF 
THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AND POSSIBLY STRONG MCS ALONG 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FOR 00-06Z TIME FRAME AND WILL 
ADDRESS IN 6Z TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI  71 89 60 75 55 / 10 05 40 20 00 
VICTORIA        68 89 57 75 50 / 10 30 60 10 00 
LAREDO          73 98 60 78 57 / 30 10 50 20 00 
ALICE           69 94 60 78 53 / 10 10 40 20 00  
ROCKPORT        72 86 60 74 56 / 10 05 40 10 00  
COTULLA         69 95 59 78 50 / 30 20 60 10 00 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

94/MJ...PUBLIC/MARINE
88/MJG...AVIATION/MESO