000 FLUS44 KOUN 101201 HWOOUN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 700 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2005 OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101700- THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN... CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA. LOCATION... THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM FREEDOM... TO WATONGA... TO ANADARKO... TO WAURIKA... AND INCLUDES ENID... STILLWATER... ARDMORE... AND THE ENTIRE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA. JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA... A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ALONG A NARROW AXIS FROM BUFFALO... TO WOODWARD... TO WEATHERFORD... TO LAWTON... TO WICHITA FALLS. TIMING... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM ALONG A DEVELOPING DRYLINE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... AND ORGANIZE INTO A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EXPECTED WEATHER AND IMPACTS... STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER DEVELOPMENT. THE SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY TO CONTAIN BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. 1 TO 2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOING DAMAGE TO ROOFS... WINDOWS... VEHICLES AND TREES. RECOMMENDED ACTIONS... PEOPLE PLANNING TO PARTICIPATE IN OUTDOOR OR RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES TODAY SHOULD STAY CURRENT WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION... AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE SAFETY ACTION WHEN SEVERE STORMS APPROACH. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT... STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND OUTDOOR EVENT ORGANIZERS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DISCUSSION... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THE LATE MORNING. BY EARLY AFTERNOON... THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR A LINE FROM BUFFALO... TO WOODWARD... TO CLINTON... TO JUST WEST OF WICHITA FALLS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE... WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE BY MIDDAY ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. DUE TO THE EXPECTED STORM EVOLUTION TO A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS... THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEAR LIMITED TODAY BY RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND SOMEWHAT DEFICIENT MOISTURE. HOWEVER... DISCRETE CELLS EARLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE EVENT... OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW THREAT OF TORNADOES. PROBABILITY TABLE... VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY APR 11. PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT. PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY... FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE... AND FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE. VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND MONDAY... IS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... NONE. THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON TODAY. $$ MILLER