000 
FXUS61 KBGM 091516
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1015 AM EST WED MAR 9 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THU)...
TODAY...UPDATED THE ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE 
SCALED BACK ON SHSN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE LAKE BANDS 
SHIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THIS AREA. THESE MULTI-BANDS, WHILE SHIFTING 
NORTHWARD, ARE BECOMING BIT BETTER ORGANIZED IN 300 DEGREE FLOW. THE 
FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO COME AROUND TO MORE OF MEAN 290 THIS AFTN. 

TONIGHT...AS THE SUN SETS...MEAN 290 FLOW SHD SET UP A SUBSTANTIAL 
SINGLE BAND CONCENTRATING ON NRN ONONDAGA...MADISON...AND SRN ONIEDA 
CNTY. BUFKIT MODEL SNDGS WLD SUGGEST THAT THE BAND WLD ORGANIZE 
EARLIER...BUT ETA12 PLAN VIEW 925 MB DIVERGENCE SHOWS A MORE 
DISORGANIZED EVENT UNTIL THE FLOW IS ALLOW TO ALIGN AFTER HTG GOES 
AWAY. MODEL SNDGS SHOW CNSDRBL ENERGY AVAILABLE UNDER THE INV. GIVEN 
THE DELTA T AND WELL ALIGNED FLOW...BELIEVE WARNING AMTS LIKELY AND 
WILL GO AHD AND RAISE LE SNOW WARNINGS FOR ABV MENTIONED AREAS FOR 
TNGT. DIV PTRN SUGGEST THE BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER INTO NRN OTESGO 
COUNTY SO WILL HOIST AN ADV THERE. 

LES BAND SHD LIFT NORTH THU AND MAY LINGER IN NRN ONEIDA LONG ENUF 
FOR ADV/WARN CRITERIS SNOW THERE. ENUF UNCERTAINTY ATTM TO WAIT ON 
THAT...PLUS DAYTIME IN LATE WINTER IS NOT ALL THAT FVRBL FOR 
SIGNIFICANT LAKE BANDS.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SHRT WV APRCHS FOR THU NGT AND WILL BRING SOME LGT 
SNOW INTO FRI. SIGNIFICANT SHR WV DIGGING UNDERNEATH THE CLIPPER LOW 
HAS ONCE AGAIN DVLPD UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AND DFCLTY IN 
TRACKING THE SFC LOW AND CSTLY DVLPMT. ANOTHER SYSTEM TO BE 
WATCHED. 

WINDS THIS MRNG STILL GUSTY AND IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH 
SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA STILL BE RCHD. 
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING.  
&&


.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT - TUESDAY)
EASTERN U.S. TROF DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CONTINUED COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COMING IN THE FORM OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS FROM A
COUPLE OF CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEMS.

.AVIATION...
XPCT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT AVP WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES. ACRS 
UPSTATE NY WDSPRD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS, SNOW SHOWERS 
AND BLOWING SNOW WITH NW WIND G20-25KT. LATER TDA THE LOW LVL FLOW 
WILL BACK TO A MORE WNW DIRECTION, WITH MULTIBAND ACTIVITY 
CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE BAND ACRS ONON/MADISON AND SRN ONEIDA 
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVNG. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PSBL IN 
THIS BAND AT SYR AND UCA, MAINLY AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE 
OVRNGT HRS. ACRS THE SRN TIER TNGT, WE COULD SEE SOME SCT -SHSN FROM 
LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS. 
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING TONIGHT NYZ018-036-037.
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT NYZ046.
      WIND CHILL ADVISORY THIS MORNING ALL ZONES.
.PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY THIS MORNING PAZ038-039-040.

$$

SHRT TERM...MORFORD
LONG TERM...JML
AVIATION...RHB