000 
FXUS65 KMSO 060311
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
811 PM MST SAT MAR 5 2005

.UPDATE...CLOUDS ARE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHEAR THIS FEATURE AND LEAVE ONLY CLOUDS AS THE RESULTANT
WEATHER. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS THE TEMPERATURES.
HAVE ADJUSTED THINGS UP A BIT IN THE NORTH WHERE THE THICKEST CLOUD
COVER IS OBSERVED. ONLY ADJUSTED THE CENTRAL ZONES UP A DEGREE OR
TWO AND LEFT THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS SIMILAR TO LAST FEW EVENINGS AS
THE CLOUDS WILL BE VERY THIN THERE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A PACIFIC SYSTEM IS MOVING INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A
STUBBORN RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY DEFLECTING NORTH INTO CANADA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45N/150W WILL DIRECT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS IT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. MONDAY WILL OFFER THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT PLUS SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM A PASSING JET
WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE...EVEN THOUGH THE MEAN RIDGE PATTERN STAYS
INTACT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO FOR NEXT WEEK. THERE
ARE SEVERAL WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...
THE TIMING AND THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM IS THE QUESTION. THE
TIMING AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY AND
SATURDAY. SO HAVE DECIDE TO TREND THE POPS UPWARD FOR THE CONSISTENCY
OF THE MODELS FOR THESE SYSTEMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO STAY
ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. &&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE/MEAD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/MSJ/SMITH
weather.gov/missoula