000 
FXUS61 KCAR 231437
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
919 AM EST WED FEB 23 2005

.SYNOPSIS...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT 
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF 
LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...CLEARING SKIES WILL CHANGE TO CLOUDY
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE.
HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR THIS MORNING...HOWEVER POPS WILL INCREASE 
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHORT WAVE. OTHERWISE...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS REASONABLE.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 426 AM EST WED FEB 23 2005) 

SYNOPSIS...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT 
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF 
LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM ( TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT )...
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST 
STILL LOOK GOOD SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR 
ADJUSTMENTS FOR MAX TEMPS THURSDAY AND HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURE 
THURSDAY NIGHT SINCE EXPECT WINDS COULD DECOUPLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDING IN FROM NORTH. FOR WINDS HAVE USED NAM12...NO CHANGES 
NEEDED TO NIGHT PERIODS SINCE SPEEDS ARE LIGHT. SKY AND POPS FROM 
PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD WITH POPS DECREASING LATER TODAY 
AND TONIGHT WHILE THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO 
THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM ( FRI THROUGH TUE )...
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OF LOW PRESSURE 
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE COULD CLIP DOWNEAST AREAS 
EARLY FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF 
THE STATE SHOULD KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS 
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST 
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE 
OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. A VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF 
ACROSS THE REGION...WILL ALSO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY 
PARTICULARLY AFFECTING DOWNEAST AREAS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END 
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING EAST TOWARD THE 
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WHILE THE 
UPPER TROF ALSO MOVES EAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING A CHANCE 
OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE 
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW WHICH COULD LIFT TOWARD THE 
REGION MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS 
INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND 
EARLY NEXT WEEK.   

AVIATION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT WHILE 
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST.

MARINE...
FOR WIND FIELDS THE COMBINATION OF THE MMG/MOS OVERLAYED ON THE 
NAM12 CONTINUES TO VERIFY WELL SO WILL CONTINUE TO POPULATE WIND 
GRIDS WITH THIS COMBINATION. SWELL IS CURRENTLY DOMINATE IN THE 
COASTAL WATERS. THE WNA WAVE WATCH III SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE 
ON THIS...WITH THE WAVE MODEL DELINEATING BETWEEN A SWELL GROUP 
COMING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AND A SHORTER GROUP THAT WAS GENERATED 
BY SSW WINDS IN THE GULF OF MAINE EARLIER. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS 
SHOWING SWELL AROUND 6 FEET IN THE WEST AND AROUND 5 FEET DOWNEAST. 
EXPECT SEAS COULD FALL BELOW SCA FOR A WHILE LATER IN THE MORNING 
WHEN WE LOSE SSW SWELL GROUP...HOWEVER WITH WINDS INCREASING LATER 
THIS AFTERNOON COMBINING WITH SWELL COMING IN FROM ATLANTIC...WOULD 
BE BETTER TO LEAVE SCA IN PLACE.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS ANZ050 THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

UPDATE...WOLFE
SHORT TERM/MARINE...MIGNONE
LONG TERM/MARINE...NORCROSS