000 
FXUS61 KLWX 221524
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1020 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2005

.UPDATE...
HAVE A LOT OF COMPETING FACTORS FOR CLOUD COVER FORECAST TODAY. 
FIRST IS THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER CHO AND CENTRAL VA THAT SHOULD 
BREAK DURING THE MIDDAY. THEN THERE IS THE OVC020 TO OVC030 THAT IS 
OVER MUCH OF MD AND NE WV THAT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY INTACT MUCH OF 
THE DAY. FINALLY IS THE CLOUD SHIELD THAT WILL BE MOVING IN ON THE 
REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. HAND IN 
HAND WITH ALL THAT IS OF COURSE ANOTHER WIDE SPREAD OF HIGH TEMPS 
TODAY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS BAD AS MONDAY SINCE THE LOW LVL FLOW IS OUT 
OF THE N INSTEAD OF THE SW. WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS TO TAKE AS MUCH OF 
THAT INTO ACCOUNT.

NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GET A FEW HUNDREDTHS INTO THE AREAS 
N OF DC. WHILE EARLY DATA SUGGESTS THAT DCA AND S STAYS DRY. WILL 
EVAL MORE FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)

LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG COVER MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS 
MORNING. EXPECT THESE TO HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE MORNING HRS AS 
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. LOW CLOUDS 
EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MIDDAY WITH A FEW BREAKS NRN HALF OF CWA. A BIT 
MORE SUN EXPECTED BY CHO AND SRN HALF FOR P/C SKIES. TEMPS TODAY 
COOLER THAN YDY DUE TO WEAK FROPA LAST NIGHT BUT STILL NEAR SEASONAL 
AVG.  

TONIGHT...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT PUSHING 
A STG CDFNT. ENOUGH MOISTURE/FORCING TO KEEP MENTION OF RA/SW MAINLY 
NRN HALF. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. 

&&

.AVIATION....MVFR CIGS/VIS THRU 16Z...THEN VFR. 

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. WILL HANG ON TO 
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS 
THE AREA. WILL ALSO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE WESTERN 
FIVE COUNTIES WILL UPSLOPE SITUATION THROUGH THURSDAY. BY 
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR AND COLD AIR 
ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE IN FROM THE 
WEST. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING 
IN THE WEST AND SPREADING EAST NORTH EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM 
WILL BE OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN THE REGION AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOOKS 
AS IF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH TO THE NORTH AND 
SOUTH OF THE AREA TO HOLD OFF PRECIP CHANCES. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP 
MODERATE TEMPERATURES A BIT BACK TO NORMAL. 

FOR MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH AS 
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL 
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE 
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO 
TUESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE LOW MOVES NORTH AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
STRONG
ROSA/SEA