000 
FXUS64 KSJT 162141
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
341 PM CST WED FEB 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT/S  
FRONTAL PASSAGE. A AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN OUR AREA FOR THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE 
CLOUDINESS. THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL REMAIN IN 
PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES AROUND THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL EJECT ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO 
AND TX. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY 
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. THE BEST 
TIMING AND CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COINCIDE WITH THE TIMING OF THE 
EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LIFT EXPECT THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. WILL TAKE AWHILE TO SATURATE THE LOW
LEVELS...SO HOLDING OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. 

WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...CARRYING A REDUCED DIURNAL 
TEMPERATURE RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME WARMING ON SATURDAY. 
CARRYING CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SUFFICIENTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 
SHOULD SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS 
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 

UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A WAVE 
AND EVENTUALLY EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. 
SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE IS PROGGED IN WEST CENTRAL TX EARLY 
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WSW WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES 
(REACHING THE LOWER 70S) SUNDAY. 

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BECOMES PROBLEMATIC WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT 
COLD FRONT...AND THIS WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE INCONSISTENCY IN THE 12Z GFS WITH RESPECT
TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...PLAN TO 
DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. A COLDER  
AND WET OVERRUNNING TYPE OF PATTERN IS PROGGED TO SETUP TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN OUR REGION. STARTED THE PROCESS OF 
TRENDING TEMPERATURES DOWN AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. FURTHER 
ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE PATTERN
SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE      36  48  39  49 /   0  30  40  40 
SAN ANGELO   38  49  40  50 /  10  20  40  40 
JUNCTION     41  50  41  51 /  10  20  50  40 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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